tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15627892.post8246013094927233966..comments2024-03-18T05:56:59.924-04:00Comments on Daled Amos: Barry Rubin: No Picnic: What a War with Iran Really MeansDaled Amoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17646808702899584547noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15627892.post-961981286720920892012-03-14T12:52:43.562-04:002012-03-14T12:52:43.562-04:00The analysis is largely correct but Mr. Rubin seem...The analysis is largely correct but Mr. Rubin seems to assume that once Iran is attacked, the Iranian regime would remain in power for years, rather than be overthrown by the initial assault or in its immediate aftermath, and that it will continue to be supported by a large percentage of the population only about half of which is ethnically Persian. There are other possibilities, e.g. that the regime will fall from power, or that the country will break up (the Kurdish, Arab, Baluchi and Azeri minorities could all try to break away).<br /><br /> Which outcome actually takes occurs will of course depend on the nature and the success of the initial attack. The only thing that clearly follows from Mr. Rubin's analysis that there is no point at all in going to war with a limited aim (e.g. destroying Iranian nuclear weapons). The aim has to be either an overthrow of the regime and its replacement with a very different one or a break up of Iran. <br /><br />Once the Khomeinists are out of power they will no longer be able to present the sort of threat to Israel and the West as they can if they stay in power. Even if they are able to conduct an insurgency of the Iraqi type for years and spread it throughout the Middle East, they will still be only a minor nuisance compared with the situation in which they are in control of a nuclear armed oil rich country of 80 million (even if most of the 80 million oppose them).lucretiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15822834637624202741noreply@blogger.com