Was Operation Cast Lead A Bigger Failure Than The War With Hezbollah? (Updated)

In an article in The Jewish Week about renewed rocket attacks against Ashkelon, Joshua Mitnick writes about the growing sense that as in the case of the war with Hezbollah, Operation Cast Lead against Hamas has also turned out to be a failure:

Amid reports of Israeli army officers warning that the military gains from the war were being eroded by the missile fire, there seems to be a growing consensus that Operation Cast Lead is not turning out to be the success that the government initially trumpeted after declaring a unilateral cease-fire on Jan. 18.

Middle East analyst Meir Javedanfar said that Israel’s handling of the conflict is worse than the 2006 Lebanon War. For all of the criticism of Israel’s inability to deliver a decisive blow against Hezbollah and the resulting erosion of Israeli deterrence, that cease-fire has held for the most part.

If the failure has been greater, there is no sense that there will be another commission in order to determine its cause--in this case, the failure does not stem from the conduct of the war itself, but from the way it was concluded:

In the case of Gaza, “Israel sent a message that it has the capability to inflict heavy damage against Hamas’ military infrastructure, but because the conflict wasn’t followed up by any agreement, Israel missed an opportunity to restore its deterrence,” he said.

“Israel made the mistake of declaring a unilateral cease-fire without any agreement from Hamas,” Javedanfar continued. “That gave Hamas the initiative. By taking the initiative they’ve eroded the gains of the war. We should have had an agreement worked out behind the scenes, with the Egyptians to work out the rules of the game — but we didn’t do that.”

Operation Cast Lead was Olmert's last chance to leave a legacy epitomizing his term as Prime Minister.

Unfortunately, he was successful.

David Hazony writes about a poll by the Palestine Center for Policy and Survey Research:

According to the poll, Hamas leader Yismail Haniyeh has now pulled ahead of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, 47% to 45%, in a popularity survey conducted in the West Bank alone. If elections were held in the West Bank today, the poll suggests, Haniyeh would be the new president of the Palestinian Authority.

The poll suggests that the December Gaza war, known as Operation Cast Lead, may have backfired. And we can understand why: By leaving the Hamas regime in place, Israel gave Haniyeh the opportunity to declare himself the victor, just by virtue of his having survived — much the way Saddam Hussein touted his “defeat” of American forces after the first Gulf War, or the way Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has done since the 2006 Lebanon War.

In the end, Operation Cast Lead is another missed opportunity:

Operation Cast Lead handed Israel everything it needed to eliminate the Hamas regime. Israel had the tacit support to do so, not just from the U.S. and Europe, but also from Egypt and even the Palestinian Authority. And it had the capability as well: A much-revamped IDF showed far superior tactical abilities in Cast Lead than it had in 2006. But what was missing was what so often seems to be missing among Israel’s leaders — a recognition of the strategic need, and of the political moment.

Is what Abba Eban said about the Palestinian Arabs proving true about Israel's leaders as well?

UPDATE: Soccer Dad pointed me to an article in Aviation Week that is dated just yesterday. The title of the article is New Tactics Yield Solid Victory in Gaza and it concludes:

Retired general and Knesset member Yizhak Ben Israel says the operation was so successful that it could become part of the historic memory of Middle East nations for years. The IDF not only restored its deterrence vis-a-vis Hamas, Ben Israel says, but against other enemies such as Hezbollah and the Iran-Syria axis.

While sporadic rocket fire continues from Gaza, leaders of Hamas—and Hezbollah—will have to take into account that the IDF could strike again with even greater force. Experts say it is doubtful that people in these areas will be willing to absorb another blow.

True, against a normal enemy, a government that is answerable to the people, this would be considered a victory. But we are talking about a terrorist group whose only concern is that they are alive to kill another day and holds their people hostage.

You cannot tell Israelis in Sderot and Ashkelon that Israel won. For all of the military prowess demonstrated, the declared goal was not achieved and no agreement was signed.

True, only "sporadic rocket fire continues from Gaza"--but that is the background that led to the war in the first place.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Israel and Gaza and Hamas and Operation Cast Lead.