US To Rebels: Hey, We're Behind You--Let Us Know How It Turns Out!

The rebel opposition in Libya has lost the momentum to Gaddafi:<

Qaddafi's Forces Have Momentum in Libya War on Rebels, U.S. Officials Say

Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi’s better-equipped forces have gained momentum against the rebels trying to drive him from power, senior U.S. intelligence officials said.

Appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said that Qaddafi’s forces have superior logistics and that the “regime will prevail” if the war goes on for a long time. Clapper said this was his personal assessment and not that of the U.S. government, adding that Qaddafi has shown he’s “in this for the long haul.”

Of course he is. After all, it's not as if we are talking about Mubarak, who has to take what the US and the West says into account.


Did the US really expect the Libyan rebels to do all the heavy lifting so that Obama could then give them a pat on the head and only then offer to help? Did the rebels really have a chance against Gaddafi?

The momentum shifted decisively Thursday in an uprising that has shaken Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi’s four decades of rule, as rebels fled from this strategic refinery town under a sustained land, air and sea assault by government forces.

The fighting was a stark illustration of the asymmetry of the conflict, pitting protesters turned rebels against a military with far superior arms and organization and a willingness to prosecute a vicious counterattack against its own people.[emphasis added]

All of a sudden, the great expectations for a rebel victory are gone, and the shine has come off the Libyan rebels:

Inside Libya's Chaotic, Secretive Rebel Leadership

While defected generals struggle to lead an army, eastern Libyan civilians find a provisional government marred by secrecy and disarray

But never fear--the Obama administration is springing into action to help the Libyan rebels, although it still won't actually spring into action:

The White House announced a five-point program on Thursday of steps to isolate Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and ultimately drive him from power, all stopping well short of military action, but distanced itself from the assessment of the nation’s top intelligence chief, who said Thursday that “over the longer term” Colonel Qaddafi’s superior firepower “will prevail” over the opposition.

The steps that the White House announced include a partial embrace of the opposition movement as well as threats to track and prosecute, in international courts, loyalists to Mr. Qaddafi who commit atrocities. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she would meet with Libyan opposition leaders next week, and President Obama’s national security adviser made it clear that Washington was looking for ways to aid the Libyan leader’s opponents.

"A partial embrace of the opposition"--the White House is hedging its bets, and that is not going unnoticed:

“We’re coordinating directly with them to provide assistance,” said the adviser, Thomas E. Donilon, though the United States has stopped short of recognizing them as the legitimate government of Libya. The help, he added, consisted of humanitarian aid and advice on how to organize an opposition government.

So in lieu of recognition, the rebels get the official US handbook on how to form a government--assuming of course the rebel leadership is not tracked down and shot.

Meanwhile, the Iranian protesters--and any other protesters in the Middle East who thought they could turn to the US for help--are watching all of this, and realize that there will be no significant help from the US.

And of course, the dictators of the Middle East are watching too.
And heaving a sigh of relief.

Technorati Tag: Libya.