Israel must prepare itself for the American withdrawal from Iraq. An American withdrawal, especially if it takes place without the United States achieving its main goals in Iraq, will certainly influence the strategic situation throughout the region.Schiff spends a number of paragraphs describing the dire situation of both the situation in Iraq as well as the drop in popularity of both Bush and the war in Iraq. He sees a large withdrawl of US troops with mostly logistical support. The results for Israel are not too hard to imagine:
America's enemies will certainly exploit those changes to claim that Washington failed to achieve its minimal goals in the Iraq war. When defeated in wars in the past, the Arabs often managed to convince their people that they won. In any case, an unsuccessful American withdrawal from Iraq will certainly cause Iran to step up its involvement there, strengthen Hezbollah and further encourage terror against Israel.But let's not forget what preceded Schiff's Friday article.
Al-Qaida will also feel more confident in its attacks on moderate and pro-Western regimes like Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Palestinian extremists will draw encouragement from such a development. What doesn't get done before the American withdrawal with regard to Israeli-Palestinian road map arrangements will be much harder to accomplish afterward. The results of various elections in the Middle East could also make things more difficult for the moderates.
First, Bush defined victory in Iraq. Not only is there a detailed description online at the Whitehouse's web site, but Bush also spoke about it at the United States Naval Academy in Annapolis:
Most Americans want two things in Iraq: They want to see our troops win, and they want to see our troops come home as soon as possible. And those are my goals as well. I will settle for nothing less than complete victory. In World War II, victory came when the Empire of Japan surrendered on the deck of the USS Missouri. In Iraq, there will not be a signing ceremony on the deck of a battleship. Victory will come when the terrorists and Saddamists can no longer threaten Iraq’s democracy, when the Iraqi security forces can provide for the safety of their own citizens, and when Iraq is not a safe haven for terrorists to plot new attacks on our nation.Secondly, Powerline writes that Bush's speech may have already had an effect, a positive one that may help Bush stay the course in Iraq and achieve the victory he outlined:
The latest Fox News poll shows that President Bush's approval rating has risen by 6 percentage points during the past three weeks. It now stands at a not so lofty but not dreadful 42 percent. The swing isn't surprising inasmuch as the economy is booming, the stock market is climbing, gasoline prices are sinking, and the president is finally defending himself and his policies with respect to Iraq. The poll results suggest that the president's speech on Wednesday may have helped his rating.While the situation in Iraq is volatile from one day to the next, according to MSNBC, "the U.S. military said Thursday that suicide bombings fell in November to their lowest level in seven months after joint U.S.-Iraqi operations west of the capital."
Whether Bush's numbers improve or not are not really the issue, as Schiff concludes:
In any case, Israel must assume that an American withdrawal from Iraq will take place in three years at the latest, when a new president enters office. It doesn't matter if it is a Democrat or Republican. The new president will surely do everything possible to find a convenient formula for a withdrawal from Iraq. Therefore, Israel must prepare strategically for an American withdrawal and carefully examine what can be achieved in the realm of arrangements with the Palestinians.It's a assumption that Israel must make. But why must Schiff conclude automatically that Israel must therefore make "arrangements with the Palestinians"? That apparently is synonymous with making concessions to the Palestinians.
As if someone has to make up another reason.
One has to wonder why Schiff things need to happen just because the US will withdraw from Iraq. Israel was in a similar situation before Gulf War II so why it should have changed or forced Israel to act he doesn't explain. Its not as if terror attacks on Israel are a new development since Gulf War II.
ReplyDeleteWhy does Schiff advocate more concessions? Because he writes for Ha'aretz.
ReplyDeleteI once read a criticism of Milton Friedman to the effect of everything that Friedman sees reminds him of monetary policy; well everything reminds me of sex but I try to keep it out of my papers.