What is a pundit anyway? Did you know that it's a sanskrit word, a title of respect for a learned man in India--besides also being defined as a source of opinion; a critic, as in a political pundit?
According to that, I guess I'm a pundit after all--but then again, so is my 6-year old daughter and her grandmother. But a blogger is nothing if not a source of opinion, and is rarely not a critic of the things they write about.
So here we are. The year 2005 is over and 2006 is just beginning. I suggested to Soccer Dad that HH #52 (to be hosted by Israel Perspectives) include posts that would either review 2005 or offer predictions for 2006. Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time. I suppose it would not be difficult in retrospect to write about the events of 2005, but what to write about in 2006--especially in Israel, where the unstoppable Ariel Sharon had things well in hand.
Until the stroke.
In theory, the confusion and uncertainty during the months leading up to the election should give Israel a little bit of a breather. After all, if the upcoming Palestinian Arab elections are a reason not to apply pressure on the Palestinians, then surely the same should hold true with Sharon removed from the picture as a political force and the Kadima juggernault left without a driver.
But bad habits die hard. While the Quartet certainly cannot expect Olmert to fill Prime Minister Sharon's shoes--on Thursday he declined to fill his chair--can we really hope for them to step back and take a break from pressuring Israeli leaders? Perhaps until the Israeli elections and then perhaps a short time after so they don't seem too anxious.
And that's just filling Sharon's shoes as Prime Minister. What about filling his shoes as head of Kadima? According to the Jerusalem Post:
The survey revealed that Kadima, with Peres at its head, would earn 42 mandates if the elections were held Thursday. In contrast, Kadima front-runners, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Justice Minister Tzippi Livni would earn 40 and 38 mandates respectively.Can you imagine the irony of Shimon Peres finally being able to win his own election under such circumstances, as a left wing dove having taken control of a 'moderate' party started by a right wing hawk?
That's OK, I doubt if too many others can either.
How about the disengagement from the West Bank? Once Sharon opened the door, isn't it only a matter of time? After all the protests against the Disengagement from Gaza followed by the relative ease with which it was accomplished, the Palestinian Arabs claimed that this proved it was possible for Israel to pull out of the West Bank as well--and the Quartet agrees. Does anyone think there is a potential Prime Minister of Israel that can stand up to the pressure that will be applied to push Israel through the door that Sharon has left opened?
How about the January 25 Palestinian elections? Supposedly, they may be postponed because Israel refused to let Israeli Arabs participate. But has Israel in recent memory drawn a line in the sand that did not get covered up and ignored. As far as January 25th is concerned, pressure will be applied on Olmert to meet any demand that might otherwise prevent the Palestinian election from happening.
Abbas might still come up with an excuse to postpone the elections. But if he does not, then barring any funny business at the polls, Hamas gets its veneer of respectability, and then can Israel still target them? The West is getting tired of paying billions that get wasted, but would probably feel a renewed sense of generousity with the corruption-free Hamas.
The first term President Bush seems like a distant memory compared to the second term version. While he may effectively put pressure on the UN to condemn Hizbollah and find ways to get more countries to vote on Israel's behalf, the days when some could actually say that Bush is Israel's best friend are just a memory. It was too much to expect that after going against the grain in Iraq that he would be able and willing to resist the pressure to get deeply involved in the Palestinian issue and come down squarely on Israel's side.
Let's face it: if you are a cynic, there are no end of scenarios that just do not look good for Israel. There's Iran, Al Qaeda in Gaza, the problems Europe has with its growing Moslem community and what Europe is willing to do to appease them, growing Anti-Semitism...those are just a few that come to mind.
Though Abba Eban once commented that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, the fact remains that they keep missing them because they are always being presented with new ones--and Israel is in part responsible for that.
In the end though, I am a blogger and not a pundit. I don't believe that the history books, news magazines, and political commentators are going to provide insights that are going to help us really get to the bottom of the situation and and figure out what is going to happen. We are talking about Israel and with Bitachon we believe that B'Ezras HaShem she will make it through and her enemies will find their plans stymied. Who would have believed the Restoration of the State of Israel were possible? The last Chanukah candle went out just a few days ago. Our trust and our hope does not.
Technorati Tag: Israel.
Though Abba Eban once commented that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity, the fact remains that they keep missing them because they are always being presented with new ones--and Israel is in part responsible for that.
ReplyDeleteGreat Line!