There Will Be No Makeups

Martin Peretz, editor-in-chief of The New Republic writes in Warning Shots about the situation in Gaza and what the future holds. One key piece to the puzzle is , of course, the Disengagement. It is a test that has been failed on oh so many, many levels:

The withdrawal from Gaza by Israel was supposed to be a test. OK, not of everything but of something. Take your pick. That the hudna (ceasefire) would hold. It didn't. Islamic Jihad hadn't even signed on to the contract. It carried out several successful terrorist attacks and day in, day out launched rockets from Gaza deeper and deeper into pre-1967 Israel. But, in a way, even more serious is the fact that the most protracted war by Qassam projectiles was waged by armed elements of Fatah, the P.A. president's own political party. What about security undertakings with regard to Gaza's border with Egypt? Again a failure. Weapons and terrorists have surged, not seeped, through the frontier that is also "guaranteed" by various European well-wishers. Is there elemental public order on the streets? Not at all. What about the assumption that there would be sufficient pressure from the Palestinian public for the P.A. to feel obliged to take control of the streets? Not enough pressure or not enough will to take control.

Instead, the more things were supposed to change, the more they stayed the same--only worse:

The P.A. is still the most heavily armed force in Gaza. No matter: Militias battle police, police battle other police, gangs brawl with other gangs; there are revenge killings, aimless killings, kidnappings, bombings, clubbings, mutilations, some pointless, some unmistakably pointed. Chaos rules in Gaza, utter mayhem. "It appears as if Gaza has degenerated into anarchy," explains CNN. There has been a steady outflow of pro-Palestinian NGO personnel from the Strip, some out of panic, some from a realization that the Palestinian revolution, so called, is animated by bloodlust. According to The Times of London, one British aid worker who was recently held hostage by gunmen for three days told her kidnappers, "I came to work with these people and I feel like I've been stabbed in the back." Is this the future of Palestine?

The good news, according to Peretz, seems to be that now--not after the debacles of Oslo, Oslo II, Wye, and the Roadmap?--but now, Israel has finally, finally gained collective clarity:

How has all this registered in Israel? The fact is that almost no one any longer believes in a negotiated peace with the Palestinians. Not because sensible and humane Israelis can't imagine a fair divide of the land between the river and the sea. But because Gaza has truly shown them that there are--let's be perfectly frank--no Palestinians with whom to treat. Oh, Israel will bargain on this point and that, so far as George Bush insists and pushes Jerusalem. So, even when Palestinian rockets slam into Israeli towns and villages and army bases, the Sharon government will agree to some formula for Palestinian travel between Gaza and the West Bank, as it is about to do. But the government knows that, whatever security assurances are given for this unprecedented passage, they will not hold--as not a single security assurance from the Palestinians has ever held. There is no dispute: This is the record.

So great! Let's say the majority of Israelis have finally found something they can agree on. The problem of course is that the move towards an independent Palestinain state really does not depend purely on what Israelis want--the Quartet has already proven that. More importantly, even if Peretz is right and Israelis realize the test is a failure, bottom line, what is Israel supposed to do?

I still believe that it was a wise move, but for purely Israeli reasons. Still, Israel may find that its forces will have to re-enter Gaza to deliver punishing blows to the Palestinians who cannot win but hold their own population hostage to their bellicosity. It even may be that Israel will decide to pit the local inhabitants against their captors, which it could do by turning off--for an hour or many hours a day--the electricity it has continued to provide to Gaza despite unrelenting provocation. It is remarkable that Israel has resisted so long taking what must be a very tempting step.

The question is whether the West if fed up enough to stand by and just let Israel do what it has to do. The West, after all does have its own agenda. According to Globes Online:

A $950 million deficit is expected in the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) 2006 budget, following the refusal of donor countries to donate additional budget support.

The refusal is mostly motivated by anger over the PA’s violations of its commitments to the international community not to increase salaries in the public sector. The resignation of PA Minister of Finance Dr. Salam Fayyad also contributed to the international community’s lack of confidence.

Bottom line, it all boils down to self-interest--and if somehow the West can finally see that it is in their best interest to let Israel exist, whole, then maybe Israel--and the West has a shot.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinians and Gaza.