Survey Says! Some Results From The Palestinian Poll

Meryl Yourish links to the latest poll of Palestinian opinion. The whole poll can be found at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. Despite the fancy title, I don't know how reliable the poll actually is--but some of the results are interesting. Here are the questions/answers I thought were the most interesting/contradictory, with some comments:

PSR - Survey Research Unit: Poll No. 19 - Main Results in Numbers

PSR poll No. 19
16-18 March 2006

	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
06) Given the results of PLC elections which took place about two months ago, some say that Hamas won because most voters wanted first and foremost (select one only):
1) a fighting authority that resists occupation	6.7	6.9	6.4
2) a clean authority that fights corruption	35.6	36.4	34.3
3) a strong authority that ends anarchy and chaos	9.4	9.2	9.7
4) an Islamic authority that rules according to Sharia and religion	36.6	35.4	38.7
5) other reasons: specify ----	9.3	10.1	7.8
6) DK/NA	2.4	2.1	3.0
First of all, who is "some say"? Are these people being asked what they themselves think or what they think the general attitude of Palestinians is? Secondly, according to the answers to this question the majority of those polled are evenly divided between voting for Hamas because they want Sharia law and an end to corruption--and less than 7% voted for Hamas as an anti-Israel move. Very nice and good PR. Less than 10% voted to end the chaos and anarchy--how would they vote now?
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
07) Some say that Fateh Lost these elections because most voters first and foremost (select only)
1) punished it for the failure of the peace process	5.1	5.2	4.8
2) punished it for the spread of corruption in the PA	51.9	53.8	48.6
3) punished it for its inability to put an end to anarchy and chaos	17.2	14.8	21.3
4) it was divided leaderless	18.9	19.5	17.8
5) other reasons: specify -----	3.7	3.5	4.0
6) DK/NA	3.3	3.2	3.4
No surprise that Fatah lost because of corruption. About 5% voted against Fatah because of failure in pursuing peace *What was not offered as an option: "punished for taking part in negotiations with Israel." Gaza was much more concerned about the anarchy in voting against Fatah--but there is less of a gap in anarchy being a reason to vote for Hamas. Why? (I should have taken statistics in college...)
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
10) The PLO and the PA have recognized the state of Israel as part of the peace process which was based on the Oslo Agreement. Hamas refused and still refuses to recognize Israel. What do you think? Now that it has won the elections, should Hamas recognize or not recognize the state of Israel?
1) It should recognize the state of Israel	35.7	36.3	34.7
2) It should not recognize the state of Israel	60.8	59.6	63.0
3) DK/NA	3.5	4.1	2.3
Let's not quibble over the fact that the PLO Charter still does not recognize Israel. The fact is that a healthy share of Palestinians don't want Hamas to recognize Israel--see next question.
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
12) For the assistance to continue, the donor community demand that Hamas must recognize the state of Israel. Do you think Hamas should accept this demand and recognize Israel?
1) Certainly yes	11.6	11.4	12.1
2) yes	25.5	24.8	26.6
3) no	42.0	44.0	38.5
4) certainly no	17.2	16.0	19.5
5) DK/NA	3.7	3.8	3.4
I assume this means that under duress some Palestinians will begrudgingly be willing to recognize Israel. A large chunk still do not. You can't negotiate in good faith with a country that you do not recognize...unless you're a Palestinian Arab.
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
17) If Israel agrees to conduct peace negotiations with a Hamas-led PA, do you think the Hamas-led PA should or should not negotiate with Israel?
1) certainly it should negotiate	26.2	26.1	26.3
2) it should negotiate	48.9	51.1	45.0
3) it should not negotiate	16.7	15.3	19.2
4) certainly it should not negotiate	5.2	3.9	7.5
5) DK/NA	3.0	3.6	2.0
But what do they mean by negotiating? Bottom line, would Palestinian Arabs be willing to make any kind of concessions? If so, what and under what circumstances. I can't help but think that negotiations for the Palestinian Arabs is just negotiated concessions. They have never show the political maturity to indicate they see it as anything else.
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
19) Are you worried or not worried about your personal freedom now that Hamas has won the elections?
1) very worried	8.1	7.4	9.4
2) worried	22.2	21.4	23.7
3) not worried	43.3	45.8	39.0
4) not worried at all	25.4	24.4	27.0
5) DK/NA	1.0	1.0	0.9
See the first question, where a little more than a third voted for Sharia law. Do the Palestinian Arabs really know what they are getting themselves into?
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
21) We would like to ask you about your expectations from the PLC you had just elected. Do you want it to
1) implement the Road Map Plan	53.0	49.9	58.5
2) not to implement the Road Map Plan	39.7	42.0	35.6
3) DK/ NA	7.3	8.1	5.9
Okay, so the majority want the Road Map to be continued to be followed, and a majority are in favor of negotiations--but 60% are opposed to recognizing Israel.
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
22) And with regard to the arms in the hands of the armed factions, do you want it to:
1) to pass laws to collect arms from all armed groups whereby the PA security services would be the only armed force in PA areas?	49.3	45.1	56.6
2) to pass laws to keep arms of the armed factions in the hands of the armed factions	27.1	27.0	27.2
3) not to interfere in the issue of the arms of the factions	20.8	23.8	15.5
4) DK/NA	2.8	4.1	0.7
If you combine 2 & 3 they are almost even divided on the question of allowing armed factions to keep their arms--which seems to jive with their apparent lack of concern for "anarchy and chaos". Don't they read the news?
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
23) What do you expect to happen to the Palestinians and Israelis now that Hamas has won Palestinian elections?
1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop	17.8	16.5	20.1
2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue	40.8	37.4	46.8
3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations	34.1	37.7	27.8
4) DK/NA	7.3	8.4	5.3
The majority agree that the future holds more bloodshed
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip
25) Would you welcome or not welcome a further Israeli disengagements and withdrawals in the West Bank whether they were unilateral or by agreement?
1) definitely welcome	32.0	27.3	40.3
2) welcome	53.9	56.2	49.9
3) do not welcome	10.3	11.6	8.0
4) definitely do not welcome	2.2	2.7	1.4
5) DK/NA	1.6	2.2	0.5
The majority of Palestinian Arabs welcome the idea of more unilateral disengagements--and why shouldn't they?
	Total	West Bank	Gaza Strip

Technorati Tag: Israel and Hamas and Fatah.