Monday, July 31, 2006

Lebanon: The Pause That Refreshes?

From The Corner, Rich Lowry writes about the response he received from an Israeli official about the 48 hour pause and what effect it will have.


Was just talking to an Israeli official. I asked him whether the temporary bombing pause would really be just temporary. He responded, "The proof of the pudding is in the eating." He went on to explain that the purpose of the pause was to get by the moment when the Qana tragedy risked creating irresistable pressure toward an immediate, conditionless ceasefire that would be a victory for Hezbollah. The Israelis believe that the tactic is working and the conversation will soon return to hammering out the conditions that will make a ceasefire sustainable. On the Lebanese political situation, he said the Israelis believe there is a natural rally-around-Hezbollah effect that will fade over time. Finally, on the military campaign he says perhaps those disappointed in how it has been going had "unrealistic expectations." Hezbollah is "extremely well dug in and there is no quick fix." It's "a guerilla war, a war of attrition, and there's going to be no knock-out blow." He says the fighting is all about creating the best possible military conditions on the ground in advance of ceasefire with the right conditions. For what it's worth... [emphasis added]
First, I don't know if Israel has much of a track record on gauging--let alone influencing--world opinion. I've seen alot of pessimism being expressed and what this official says does nothing to change that.

Second, while there is alot of press on the expertise of Hizbollah and their terrorist military capabilities, it seems that what they really have going for them is their ability to hide behind women & children and having an Iranian sugardaddy, whose weapons are such a threat stabilizing force in the region (sorry, my French is not that good).


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