THE HAMAS COUP AND REPERCUSSIONS FOR GILAD SHALIT: There are all kinds of assumptions:

Analysts say that Hamas first must prove to nervous Gazans that it can deliver on a practical level by providing basic items such as gasoline, food, electricity and water. This would mean securing even a minimum level of cooperation with Israel, which could be bolstered significantly by the release of Shalit.

Second, making a prisoner swap with Israel would boost Hamas' popularity in Gaza as well as the West Bank. The issue of Palestinian prisoners is a hugely emotional one on the Palestinian street, where almost every family has a relative or friend in an Israeli jail.

The motivation for Hamas to get good PR is balanced by the anger they would generate among Gazans if they did not get a large number of prisoner releases in exchange.

On the other hand, is Israel really willing at this point to negotiate with Hamas and as a result help mitigate the world's horror at the Hamas coup and strengthen their position in Gaza--while at the same time realizing that obtaining the release of Shalit could provide Olmert with some good PR of his own.

Gilad Shalit remains as much a pawn as ever.

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Technorati Tag: Israel and Gilad Shalit and Hamas and Gaza.