WHO ACTUALLY BACKS ABBAS? The secular Arab World may be afraid of Hamas Islamists, but bottom line--only a democracy backs a loser.

Maariv carries the story that Saudi Arabia has already undercut the results of the Sharm el-Sheikh meeting.

"The Saudi Plan Is Dead": Senior Saudi Officials Admit to Israel that the Initiative Is No Longer Relevant

Israel's hope to reach an understanding on a political settlement together with the countries of the Arab League has run aground. Senior political officials in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan announced in closed meetings with senior Israelis that the "Saudi Initiative," which Prime Minister Olmert sees as a basis for an agreement, is presently dead, and that as long as the chaos continues within the Palestinian Authority, there is no point in pursuing this avenue. These clarifications were received by senior Israeli political and defense officials.

An internal document from the Foreign Ministry of July 2 says that Saudi Arabia has significantly changed its policy toward Israel and the PA. "Saudi reluctance to express clear support for Abbas and his new government reflects Saudi opposition to Abbas' policy to isolate Hamas," the document says. It further notes that the Saudis are very disappointed by the rapid failure of the Mecca Agreement brokered between Hamas and Fatah earlier this year. The document states that Israel should stop using the term "the Saudi Initiative." (translation by Daily Alert)

Meanwhile, Egypt and Jordan are coming around to the same conclusion--that Abbas and Fatah cannot stand against Hamas:

Both Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan's King Abdullah moved quickly to support moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas last week. Mubarak said Hamas had undertaken a "putsch" in Gaza. He sent his diplomats stationed there to Ramallah in the West Bank, where Abbas' Fatah party remains in control, and he closed the border crossing into Egypt at Rafah.

But Mubarak and Abdullah already seemed to be plagued by doubts at a summit at Sharm el-Sheik. The number two leader of the Islamist terrorist network al-Qaida, the Egyptian Ayman al Zawahiri, had called on all Muslims to support Hamas only a few hours earlier. Mubarak that evening quietly urged Fatah to negotiate with the new rulers in Gaza.

That seems to leave just the US and Israel that are really gung ho about backing Abbas with money, arms, and of course--men. Of course, besides being leaders of democracies, both are leaders who are besieged both by the opposition and within their own party, and need to prove something.

These are things that Arab rulers don't generally consider--they intend to stick around as long as possible and are intent on survival. Supporting Abbas just doesn't do it for them.

For that matter, it won't do anything for Israel either.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Olmert and Abbas and Hamas and Gaza and West Bank and Egypt and Jordan and Saudi Arabia.