WHAT CAN YOU TELL FROM A POLL? IMRA did a telephone poll of 489 adult Israelis--including Arab Israelis--on 22 August 2007. Here are the results from 2 of the questions asked:

Do you think that there will be a military conflict in the North in the
coming year?
Total: Certain yes 22.9% Maybe 23.0% No/appears no 38.0% Other 16.1%
Kadima voters: Certain yes 6.9% Maybe 46.5% No/appears no 34.7% Other 11.8%
Likud voters: Certain yes 6.3% Maybe 28.1% No/appears no 46.6% Other 19.0%
Labor voter: Certain yes 24.0% Maybe 26.4% No/appears no 30.8% Other 18.8%

According to the results of the first question, 34.4% of Likud voters think there will be a war with Hizbullah (the lowest percentage of the 3 groups), while 56.4% of Kadima see it coming. Labor has the highest percentage of those who are certain of a war with Hizbullah of the three groups. Wouldn't you have expected Likud to be the most certain?

Do you think that PM Ehud Olmert and PA President Abu Mazen [AL: Mahmoud
Abbas] are capable of reaching an agreement of principles for a permanent
agreement?
Total: Yes 20.3% No 63.0% Other 16.7%
Kadima voters: Yes 13.9% No 48.6% Other 37.5%
Likud voters: Yes 6.3% No 93.7%
Labor voters: Yes 24.8% No 69.2% Other 6.0%

Do the results of second question indicate that Kadima voters are the least capable of giving a straight answer (Other: 37.5%)?

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