Annapolis and Iran

On November 6, David Brooks wrote in The New York Times that what was driving the renewed diplomacy leading up to the Annapolis summit was an attempt to create a new anti-Iran coalition, using the creation of a Palestinian state as encouragement. I wrote about some of the criticisms of such an idea, and Soccer Dad goes into it in more detail.

Aluf Benn of Haaretz, seems to have come up independently with the same idea as Brooks--and even finds a precedent of sorts for it:

Judging by his actions and by his discreet dialogue with Bush, Olmert envisions a multi-pronged effort for regional change, in which Israel will facilitate a Palestinian state and the United States will take care of Iran. Such a "settlement removal for Natanz destruction" deal, simplistic as it may appear, could nevertheless hold some appeal for both sides. An Israeli withdrawal, or even pledged withdrawal, from the West Bank could give Bush a much-needed gift for his European and Arab allies, who have chastised the administration for its lack of action on Israel-Palestine. In turn, a West Bank withdrawal may dilute the U.S. opposition to a strike against Iran and solidify the Sunni "Arab moderates" who oppose Iranian-Shiite influence. At the same time, Olmert could fend off criticism over the security risks of withdrawal if he shows that, in return, a graver threat to Israel is removed.

Under this scenario, the planned Israeli-Palestinian peace conference in Annapolis, Md., later this month may be the first act in a major regional play. In 1991, the George H.W. Bush administration launched the Madrid peace conference following its victory in the First Gulf War. This time, his son may take the reverse tactic: first Arab-Israeli peace, then hitting at the regional bullies.

Benn, however, is much more conscious of the political realities in the area as well as of Olmert and his government, with reservations by both those without and within his party. Also, Benn quotes a poll by Haaretz on October 10, indicating that Israelis themselves are divided on the Annapolis summit--with 51% supporting talks with Abbas and 42% opposed to them.

Benn's article is entitled End Game--which is the part of a chess game when most of the pieces have been removed. Under the circumstances, it might serve Olmert well to try harder to hold on to his pieces.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Annapolis.