A Reminder That Gaza Is Egypt's Problem Too

A couple of days ago, Emanuele Ottolenghi pointed out that Gaza actually has 2 borders--not only with Israel, but also with Egypt: the idea being that supplies can be brought to Gaza by way of Egypt just as well as from Israel.

Now the Egypt-Gaza border is in the new again, this time illustrating that what comes out of Gaza can effect Egypt just as well as it does Israel. In Good News in Gaza, Noah Pollak writes:

...What we have seen is a subtle and consistent attempt from the Egyptians not just to avoid having Gaza become their problem, but to ensure that the radical energies emanating from Gaza would always be sent in one direction: Israel.

...Egypt has been trying to play a delicate game: keep Hamas in the game by allowing them to bring in weapons, cash, and terrorists, but not so conspicuously that it causes a serious American or Israeli backlash.

But today, Hamas just blew the border fence down. Suddenly, some of the pressure that has built up in Gaza over the past several months has been released, and it didn’t go toward Israel — it went into Egypt, and now the Egyptians are faced with a calamitous situation.

Egypt has been hoisted with its own petard, and it is really quite enjoyable to see from a strategic perspective. Hamas probably blew up the border fence with explosives that Egypt allowed it to smuggle into Gaza. Heh.

Not the world will pay much attention to how Egypt deals with the problem. However Shrinkwrapped sees here the potential for real possibilities:

Yet at the same time, the ties between Egypt and Gaza, including an exit corridor for those looking to leave the Gaza strip, is now open for business. Disaffected Gazans, many of whom have expressed the desire to evacuate a war zone and have effectively been imprisoned by Hamas, will have opportunities to leave and resettle elsewhere.

The possibilities are intriguing. Gaza can now integrate its economy with Egypt and start to build structures. If Tom Barnett, et al, are correct this will inevitably moderate their behavior. If, as is more likely (consider the Scorpion and the Frog), Hamas provokes a larger war with Israel, Gaza citizens will have an exit and can become real refugees, not the faux refugees they have been since 1948. In such a circumstance, the strictures that have been imposed on Israel by the human shields that Hamas has wielded so effectively, will loosen with results that have the potential to surprise many and change the dynamics of the confrontation in unforeseeable ways.

Possibly in ways that the artificial Annapolis summit could never do.

[Hat tip: Powerline]

Technorati Tag: Israel and Egypt and Gaza.