What Are The Chances Of An Israel-Hizbollah Rematch?

David Hazony at Contentions writes about the possibility of Lebanon III--not only after the assassination of Mughniyeh, but because of the criticism Hizbollah is getting from Seoniora and Jumblatt. Even given the threats coming from Nasrallah on the one hand and the fact that the IDF of today is not the same as 2006...

Neither Hizbullah nor Israel really wants full-scale war right now, however. Israel is unlikely to get the kind of diplomatic air cover from Washington the way it did in 2006, if for no other reason than because of the instability it might bring to John McCain’s campaign. Hizbullah, too, stands to lose a great deal, not just from defeat, but even from another stand-off, which would likely hurt its public image in Lebanon even further, and possibly bring on civil war. So the most likely outcome is saber-rattling, and possible surgical strikes.

Read the whole thing.

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