Truce Or Not, Things Are Not Getting Any Better In Lebanon

I wrote a few days ago about Michael Totten's piece on the deteriorating peace in Lebanon. Now, Michael Totten writes:

Hezbollah is alarming its Lebanese opponents by expanding its territory through the purchase of property outside Shia areas in Lebanon.

...Christians, Sunnis, and Druze have been talking about building up their own private forces for some time now to provide a balance of power in Lebanon because the state is too weak to handle the job. Since Jumblatt proved he can repel Hezbollah with a militia, and Hariri cannot because he doesn’t have a militia, the incentive for communal re-armament is now greater than it has been since the civil war ended. NOW Lebanon says Hezbollah’s current strategy is suicidal, and it is. But it’s the most destructive form of suicide possible, the political equivalent of a suicide bombing.

I have written many times that Hezbollah’s enemies cannot defeat them in battle. It’s still true. What’s also true is that Hezbollah cannot defeat everyone else. A renewed civil war would produce a grinding stalemate with Hezbollah as the strongest and with the highest body count. Nasrallah would lose nearly every advantage he has as the leader of the only seriously armed faction, and the rest of the country would circle the drain along with him.

In the other Totten post, he quoted a Lebanese leader who the Doha truce was only temporary. Apparently, the Lebanese have a Hudna of their own going with Hizbollah.

And into this mess comes Olmert, trying to negotiate some kind of peace agreement with Lebanon. Just how desperate is Olmert?

Technorati Tag: Lebanon