Russia's Invasion Of Georgia May Be A Problem For Iran

According to Meir Javedanfar of Middle East Economic and Political Analysis (MEEPAS), writing for Pajamas Media--Iran Worried over Georgian Conflict, Iran should be overjoyed with the Russian invasion of Georgia, besides the fact that Russia is an important ally:

There are also cultural reasons why Iran would want the Russian-backed South Ossetians to emerge victorious, as their local dialect is very close to Farsi, Iran’s national language. Many of the province’s citizens have Iranian heritage, as a number of countries in the Caucasus used to belong to Persia before Russia annexed them in the early 18th century.

But they're not:

These concerns were reflected in an article published in Tabnak, owned by former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohsen Rezai. In an interview with Dr. Mehdi Senai, a politics lecturer at Tehran University, Senai said that Tehran’s nuclear program, and the international approach to resolve the dispute surrounding it, may become part of a wider agreement between the U.S. and Russia after the end of the conflict. What worries him is that “Russia’s capacity to confront the U.S. is limited.”

Personally, I find that difficult to believe, but apparently there are 2 fears:

o That Iran would lose the support and influence of Russia
o In order to make a deal over Georgia, Russia would give the go-ahead for the US to launch a military operation against Iran's nuclear facilities.

Why Russia would undercut its new found influence in such a way is beyond me.

And of course, the list would not be complete if Israel was not tied in--because of the arms and training it has been providing Georgia over the years. As a matter of fact, Georgia’s defense minister--Davit Kezerashvili--is a former Israeli citizen. Iran's concern is that Israel would agree to limit the weapons it provides to purely defensive weapons--and in return, Russia would downgrade the level of sophisticated weapons it is providing to Iran:

This move is likely to win new friends and allies for Israel in the Kremlin. Even if Russia doesn’t immediately reciprocate, it might do so in the future. The Georgian experience will serve as a good personal example for Russia’s leadership and the threat they pose by supplying sophisticated weapons to another country’s enemy, especially Iran, which Israel sees as an existential threat, something far more serious than the Georgian threat poses for Russia.

Circles within circles.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Israel and Russia and Georgia and Iran.