The Logic Of Getting Israel To Get Rid Of Its Nuclear Weapons

Foreign Affairs has an article The Logic of Zero on the need for the US to lead the world in eliminating nuclear weapons. Naturally, you can't talk about eliminating nuclear weapons without talking about Israel. This is what the authors, Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal, have to say:

Israel initially developed nuclear weapons out of the fear that its army could be overrun by the vastly larger Arab armies in the region. Today, Israel also faces the prospect of a nuclear-armed regime, Iran, that has openly called for its destruction — a critical reason to maintain a nuclear deterrent. But if strong pressure on Iran could succeed in reversing its nuclear program, Israel would have much less need for its nuclear weapons. Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt, for all of their disappointments, have largely eliminated any conventional military threat to Israel’s existence, and Israel’s own conventional forces, with significant and continuing help from the United States, are now dominant in the region. Israel has also consistently stated — as recently as this year — that it favors an agreement that would make the Middle East a zone free of all weapons of mass destruction. As with Pakistan, if Israel can be assured that it will not face any nuclear threat from another state, it should prove possible to convince it to see the merits of joining a global effort to eliminate nuclear weapons and thus deny terrorists any opportunity to get the bomb.

Question:

1. Just how effective has pressure been on Iran till now to stop its nuclear program? Besides, considering that according to today's New York Times:

Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.

just how effective would pressure be now?

2. Even if Egypt and Jordan do not pose a conventional military threat to Israel, what about Hamas and Hizbollah. I mean, seriously--the article does not even mention Syria, where traces of uranium were found at the site of the facility where Israel bombed.

3. If Israel is really dominant in the region, please explain what happened in that little war they had with Hezbollah a few years back...

4. The authors think Israel can be convinced that it does not face a nuclear threat from another state? Well, considering the past leaders Israel has, that probably is true. At the very least, how would Olmert have reacted to sufficient pressure in that regard? As always, a lot is riding on the next election.

By all means, lets strive to get rid of all nuclear arms--but let's at least keep our eyes open to the current realities. Logic of Zero, indeed.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

[Hat: Shmuel Rosner]

Technorati Tag: Israel and Nuclear Arms.