Will Obama's Playbook Work For Livni?

Emanuele Ottolenghi asks Where Is Kadima Heading?--noting that the Second Intifada has disproved both Peace Now and Greater Israel, leading to the strategy of withdrawal even without the promise of peace.

What made Israelis buy into this notion? First, the relative quiet that had characterized the northern border with Lebanon since May 2000, when the first instance of Israeli unilateralism had been carried out. Second, the demographic argument that made relinquishing the Gaza Strip a logical conclusion. And third, the personality of Ariel Sharon, whom Israelis felt — after he had vanquished the Palestinian Second Intifadah — they could blindly trust on security.

All three of these points have disappeared--and Olmert will soon no longer be around to act as if the first two are still in force and as if he were the successor to the third.

That being the case, what will Livni do, since it was the idea of unilateral withdrawal that formed Kadima's underlying appeal?

The answer may be from a post by David Hazony in reaction to Arkady Gaydamak's political problems:

In this sense, Jerusalem’s voters have given voice to a deep revulsion over what feels and smells like political corruption, (of which the case of Ehud Olmert is merely the tip of the iceberg.) My guess is that in the upcoming national election, many voters will be abandoning the old questions of peace and borders, and putting their votes where their gut tells them the parties are in terms of ideological vision. The downfall of Gaydamak just might signify a new beginning for Israeli politics.

Imagine that: vision instead of issues? That approach seemed to work pretty well for Obama--and a connection between Obama and Livni has been noted. Livni still has her image going for her as the newcomer, the clean newcomer. In the current environment of Israeli politics, that may be all that she needs to win in February.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Livni and Israel.