The Surge--Israel Style!

Was Operation Cast Lead Meant To Last Only 2 Days?

To hear Amos Harel of Ha'aretz tell it, you would almost think that Operation Cast Lead, as it is now being executed, is an accident. On January 2, he wrote:

Almost a week into the war it now seems clear that Israel missed a golden opportunity in the first or second day to end the operation as a reprisal action only. The government says it is giving the IDF a chance to achieve the maximum, but in reality the air strikes were to have given the government time to come up with an exit strategy. That did not happen. As a result, Hamas is rallying somewhat while Israel is sliding toward a a ground operation that holds many risks.

From Iraq To Hamas

But writing just 2 days later on January 4, The Wall Street Journal doesn't see the Israeli operation in Gaza that way at all:

Though the analogy isn't perfect, in some sense this Hamas exercise can be understood as Israel's version of the U.S.-Iraqi "surge" in Iraq. The year 2006 was the worst in more than a generation for Western interests in the Middle East, with al Qaeda and Iran's proxies advancing in Iraq, Hezbollah fighting Israel to a draw in Lebanon, and Hamas rising in Palestine. The 2007-2008 surge reclaimed the advantage in Iraq, and now Israel is attempting to do the same against Hamas.

But the fact that the US was able to turn the war around in Iraq does not necessarily mean that Israel will be able to replicate all of the means that led to the success of the surge. In Obama Imitates Olmert, Michael Totten writes:

American General David Petraeus proved counterinsurgency in Arabic countries can work. His surge of troops in Iraq is about a change of tactics more than an increase in numbers, and his tactics so far have surpassed all expectations. The “light footprint” model used during former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure may have seemed like a good idea at the time, but American soldiers and Marines had no chance of defeating insurgents from behind barbed wire garrisons. Only now that the troops have left the relative safety and comfort of their bases and intimately integrated themselves into the Iraqi population are they able to isolate and track down the killers. They do so with help from the locals. They acquired that help because they slowly forged trusting relationships and alliances, and because they protect the civilians from violence.

The Israel Defense Forces did nothing of the sort in Lebanon.

Nor is the IDF doing that now--if the Israeli army is getting the help of any Gaza locals against Hamas, it is because they are members of Fatah. In the case of the surge, you had Iraqi citizens helping the US against insurgents who opposed the American-aided Iraqi government. In Operation Cast Lead, the Israelis themselves are the insurgents in the eyes of the Gazan population--trying to overthrow their democratically elected government.

The Surge: Israel Style

That is not to say that Israel will not be able to replicate the success of the surge. Major-General Yaakov Amidror wrote Winning Counterinsurgency War:The Israeli Experience [PDF], a report drawing in part on the US experience in Iraq. In Part II of the report, Amidror delineates the steps necessary to defeat terrorism:

An examination of many terrorist events throughout the world (but especially the Israeli experience in fighting Palestinian and Hizbullah terrorism) shows that six basic conditions can be defined which, if met, provide the foundation for defeating terrorism:

• A political decision to defeat terrorism, stated explicitly and clearly to the security forces, and the willingness to bear the political cost of an offensive.
• Acquiring control of the territory in and from which the terrorists operate.
• Relevant intelligence.
• Isolating the territory within which the counterterrorist fighting takes place.
• Multi-dimensional cooperation between intelligence and operations.
• Separating the civilian population from the terrorists.

These conditions are necessary but insufficient; they do not ensure victory over
terrorism, but without them victory is impossible.

I'm no military expert, but my impression is that in 2006 all six of these conditions were lacking. I also have the impression, based upon what I have read, that Israel has gone a long way towards fulfilling these conditions this time around.

Israel Learns PR

There is another area in which Israel has shown improvement as well:

An intensive study of asymmetric warfare shows two innovations: civilians are part of the terrorist organizations’ strength and capabilities, and therefore friction with them cannot be avoided; and the media expose counterterrorist activities in a way which is liable to influence the way decision-makers respond, with little connection between the truth and what is reported. These two innovations taken together demand that a new principle be added to the IDF’s list of war principles: “image and legitimization,” whose purpose is to make commanders of all ranks relate to both in planning the fighting and its execution. This means that at every level, whoever plans and carries out an action in war has to consider how it will be presented and appear in the media. He should, by commission or omission in planning and execution, reinforce both internal (inside the State of Israel) and external (by the world in general) legitimization for Israel’s actions in the war. Military planners have to be aware of the issue of involvement of civilians: on the one hand, some of them may have to be harmed when there is no choice, and on the other, there must be untiring effort to prevent them from being injured, insofar as this is possible. All this must be done while paying the greatest possible attention to the need to explain to the Israeli public, and to the world, every action carried out, including failures. [emphasis added]

If there is one thing that stands out in the conduct of Operation Cast Lead, it is the use social media--YouTube, Twitter, and blogs--by Israel to make its case. After all, based on Israel's past failures in the areas of PR and Hasbara, who would ever have expected to see a headline advising:

What Conservative Bloggers Can Learn From Israeli YouTube Public Relations

Oh-Oh: That Dreaded D-Word Again!

Another important point in successfully emulating the surge in Iraq brings us back to a major bone of contention:

As opposed to the Americans, it is not necessary for Israel to add “restraint” in the
use of force as a principle of war. For Israel that would be a grave error. Sometimes
the need might arise, but generally speaking, a small country like Israel can deal with terrorism and guerrilla organizations only if its response is not proportional and is carried out in such a way as to convince the other side that it too has something to lose. A proportional response will drag Israel into a war of attrition whose rules will be determined by the terrorists, and which it will lose. A country like Israel can successfully cope with terrorism and guerrilla tactics only if it retains the ability to respond disproportionately; otherwise, it will find itself fighting according to the enemy’s rules. [emphasis added]

Not only does Amidror mention the use of Disproportionate Force--he embraces it!
Which of course makes sense since, as I posted before, in regards to Disproportionate Force, International Law on “prohibits the use of any kind or degree of force that exceeds that needed to accomplish the military objective.”

It may be that this time around, Israel's improved effectiveness in the use of PR may give it a little more leeway in regards to using the kind of force necessary.

It Ain't Over...Ever

In his conclusion, Amidror writes:

The discussion above has shown that one can essentially vanquish terror, even if it is
a victory that only prevents terror from successfully implementing its plans, while it
does not influence the terrorists’ intentions. Victory of this type requires constant and determined effort from the moment that it is attained, for if not, conditions will revert to their former sorry state as soon as the terror organizaitions deem themselves strong enough.

It is a humongous task--but one that Israel may have finally determined is absolutely necessary and is willing to do.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Gaza and Hamas and Operation Cast Lead.