Has Obama Put Israel In A Corner--Or Himself? (Updated)

Obama has laid down the law with Netanyahu on the issue of freezing settlements--But Robert Kagan questions who really will be weakened by this:

There must be a brilliant strategy in here somewhere. But from the outside, it isn’t obvious where the confrontation with Israel is supposed to lead. While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can conceivably put a freeze on new settlements, it is unlikely that he can stop “natural growth” of existing settlements and still hold his government together. Indeed, it is questionable whether any Israeli government could. Perhaps the Obama administration is trying to bring the Netanyahu government down. Regime change!

Clearly, this is an effort to shape Arab opinion and show that the Obama administration is more even-handed than its predecessor. But if Israel can’t or won’t deliver, what does the Obama administration do next? If it backs away from its demand, then it proves itself impotent in the face of Israeli intransigence, thus presumably weakening its standing with the Arabs. But if it doesn’t back down, what forms of punishment does it intend to carry out to force Israel’s hand? Will the administration place sanctions on Israel at a time when it is offering to lift sanctions on Iran?

And settlements is not where the pressure being applied to Israel ends:

United States President Barack Obama intends to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu four to six weeks to provide an "updated position" regarding construction in West Bank settlements and the two-state principle.

Obama made a surprise appearance on Tuesday at a meeting Defense Minister Ehud Barak was holding in Washington, shortly before the U.S. leader was set to leave on a five-day trip to the Middle East.

Obama spoke for about 15 minutes with Barak, who was meeting with National Security Adviser General Jim Jones at the time. While Obama's official schedule did not include a meeting with Barak, he has in the past dropped into other officials' meetings with international figures.

According to an official Israeli source, Obama wants to complete the formulation of a preliminary six-month plan for progress toward a Middle East peace agreement and to present it in July.

Good thing Likud MK Tzipi Hotovely organized that conference on Alternatives to the Two-State Outlook.

Of course, the response that Obama gets from Netanyahu may not be to his liking--any more than Israel's response on the issue of settlements.

But then, Obama did make a point of talking about being honest with Israel.

It's only fair that Israel return the favor.

UPDATE: Jennifer Rubin notes there has already been some back-tracking and adds:

This sounds suspiciously like other hair-brained maneuvers the Obama administration has undertaken (e.g. release of the detainee abuse photos, closing Guantanamo). The president makes some grand pronouncement and soaks of the applause of one or another left-wing group. Word gets out that what the president is suggesting is ludicrous (e.g. there is no better place to put the Guantanamo terrorists, there is sense in bullying Israel to make unilateral concessions) and so a hasty bit of spin must ensue. This is a poor way to run national security policy. Soon both our allies and foes will learn not to listen when Obama speaks.

And just which foes have been listening to Obama?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Obama.