Will The Pro-Israel Congress Stand Up To Obama? (Updated)

If Obama's pressure on Israel over freezing settlements seemed to have drawn little response from the generally pro-Israel Congress, maybe that is because Congress is currently not in session.

But don't expect Obama to flip-flop just because of Congressional pressure:

Presidents from Jimmy Carter to George H.W. Bush saw attempts to pressure Israel draw furious objections from Congress, but members of Congress and observers say Obama will most likely prevail as long as he shows that he’s putting effective pressure on Israel’s Arab foes as well.

But even a key defender of Obama’s Mideast policy, Rep. Robert Wexler (D-Fla.), is seeking to narrow the administration’s definition of “settlement” to take pressure off Obama. And the unusual criticism by congressional Democrats of the popular president is a sign that it may take more than a transformative presidential election to change the domestic politics of Israel.

Other Democrats, in interviews with POLITICO, raised similar concerns. While few will defend illegal Jewish outposts on land they hope will be part of a Palestinian state, they question putting public pressure on Israel while — so far — paying less public attention to Palestinian terrorism and other Arab states’ hostility to Israel.

To some degree, Obama will be able to gain more breathing space for his position on Israel and the settlements if he can achieve the breakthrough with the other Arab states he is expected to push for when he visits Saudi Arabia:

On his upcoming trip to Riyadh this week, Obama is expected to press Saudi Arabia, along with other Arab states, to move toward normalizing relations with Israel, a breakthrough that might satisfy Israel’s domestic allies and allow him more room to push the question of settlements, analysts said.

“If he gets the Arabs to stand up and produce normalization, it becomes easier for him to create a decision point for the Israelis and to outmaneuver his domestic political critics,” said Aaron David Miller, a veteran former Mideast negotiator under Republican and Democratic administrations.

But the fact remains that Congress in general, and Democrats in particular are not about to be as vociferous about their support for Israel as they have been during past administrations:

Other Democrats allied with Israel didn’t respond to questions about Obama’s policy, however. And the rhetoric, even from Obama’s critics, remains relatively sedate compared with the open insurrection other presidents, from Carter to the elder Bush, have triggered with attempts to apply direct pressure on Israel.

“There’s such a desire for him to be successful that he’s lived this charmed life that most politicians, and most presidents, dealing with Israel wouldn’t have,” said one congressional Democrat. “In the early months, the finger is off the hair trigger on these issues.”

Read the whole thing.

The Middle East has brought previous administrations down to earth--it remains to be seen how long it will take the politics of the Middle East to demonstrate that Obama is merely mortal.

UPDATE: In response to the Politico article, Jennifer Rubin writes:

This is rich — Obama promises to be “honest” with Israel. This is all about the settlements of course and our insistence that Israelis not expand existing dwellings on the West Bank and even in Jerusalem. We are not being honest about the fact that there is no remotely viable “peace process.” Nor are we being honest about the looming nuclear threat from Iran and the foolishness of a talk, talk, talk process which has gone no where for the last five or so years. No, this is straight from the James Baker playbook: beat up on Israel and see what it brings. But it is interesting that Israel is the only country exempt from the “don’t dictate, listen instead” Obama outreach plan. (Clearly the way to go for Israelis is shoot off some missiles during a presidential speech, grab an American journalist or two and denounce American “imperialism.” Then they might get the kid glove treatment.)

Considering the treatment the Palestinians have received despite murdering 3 Americans in October 2003--Rubin has a point.

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