Crediting Obama With A Major Turnaround In Middle East Peace (Yes, Really)

We are not quite at that point yet, but according to some: we may have turned the corner on an important ingredient in any peace agreement: concessions on both sides.

Evelyn Gordon writes on Contentions:

That Israel and the Palestinians, after 16 years of direct talks, are now back to indirect talks is an undeniable retreat. But in a must-read analysis, the Jerusalem Post’s diplomatic correspondent, Herb Keinon, points out that this may nevertheless be one of the most hopeful moments of the entire peace process — because for the first time, “the Palestinians gave in on something.


“Israelis, Palestinians and the world have become accustomed to Israel setting red lines, and then moving them,” Keinon wrote. “The Palestinians, on the other hand, have set a track record of saying what they mean.” For instance, they have never budged from their demand for “all of east Jerusalem, including the Old City,” or for “the right of Palestinian refugees to return to Israel proper.”

But after months of proclaiming that he would not resume talks with Israel without a complete freeze on Israeli construction in both the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has backed down. And this offers a crucial lesson for the future.

“The reason Abbas was willing to move his red line was because he came under intense pressure from the US, certain elements inside the EU, and from Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan to start talks, even though all his conditions were not met,” Keinon noted. “The valuable lesson here: The Palestinians, too, and not only Israel, are susceptible to pressure. [emphasis added]”

Gordon concludes:

If these countries learn the lesson and in fact begin pressuring Abbas to start educating his people about what an agreement will really entail, Barack Obama might someday justly claim credit for having fomented the turnabout that ultimately led to an agreement. But if they instead fall back into the old familiar pattern of endlessly pressuring Israel for more concessions, the current round of talks will be just one more link in an unbroken chain of peace-process failures.

I'm more than happy to credit Obama for this turnabout--but applying pressure to the Palestinian Arabs is also a result of Netanyahu holding his ground on key issues, even while giving way on others. To make good on his claim made at the beginning of his term that he would succeed in the Middle East where his predecessors failed pressured Obama to apply pressure to Abbas to come in from the cold.

But fine, if something truly positive comes from all this, let's go ahead and give Obama credit.

If.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

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