Obama's Mideast Peace Process: New Letter Threatening Pressure On Abbas Is Meaningless

Back in March, the very fact that Abbas agreed to the Proximity Talks was itself seen as Abbas giving into pressure. At the time, Herb Keinon wrote in the Jerusalem Post:

So when Abbas said for months and months that he would not enter into negotiations with Israel unless and until there was a full settlement freeze, including east Jerusalem, it seemed this was a firm Palestinian red line – not one of those pliable Israeli ones – and that he meant what he said.

Well, now we see the Palestinians can also move red lines, which is worth noting as some kind of talks resume.


Equally important is to understand that the reason Abbas was willing to move his red line was because he came under intense pressure from the US, certain elements inside the EU, and from Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan to start talks, even though all his conditions were not met.

The valuable lesson here: The Palestinians, too, and not only Israel, are susceptible to pressure.

However, in the time since then, we have seen that this was a false alarm. After all, was Abbas 'talking' with Netanyahu through Mitchell really a concession? Besides, just what movement has there been during the Proximity Talks since they first started?

Zero. A. Big. Fat. Zero.

So, when Abbas went to the Arab League to get his refusal to deal face-to-face with Netanyahu rubber stamped, Obama applied pressure:

US upgrades PA diplomatic recognition

Yeah, that helped Abbas take Obama seriously.

So, not surprisingly, when Abbas met with the Arab League:

 Arab League endorses direct talks

Arab League foreign ministers on Thursday authorized the Palestinian Authority to enter into direct negotiations with Israel, but left it up to PA President Mahmoud Abbas to decide on the timing. [emphasis added]

What the Arab League did, was to agree that Abbas should negotiate directly with Netanyahu--but left it up to Abbas to decide when.

Now it is being reported that Obama has applied real pressure to Abbas. According to Laura Rozen at Politico:

President Barack Obama has sent a letter to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas urging that he agree to go into direct talks with the Israelis next month, and warning that if he doesn’t, relations with the United States would be affected, Arabic newspaper Al Hayat and Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv are reporting.

The White House declined to comment Saturday on the reports of an Obama letter or confirm its existence.

The letter is rumored to promise Abbas that if he agrees to direct negotiations, Netanyahu will extend the settlement freeze.

While it's good to see that Obama is taking a harder line on Abbas, applying pressure as he has on Netanyahu in the past, Arlene Kushner writes about how misleading news of this letter actually is:

Speaking of those direct talks, news has just broken of a letter that was sent to Abbas by Obama two weeks ago, in which he said, “it is high time to resume direct negotiations with Israel” as Netanyahu “is ready to resume direct negotiations.” [emphasis added]

Two weeks ago?

Yup:

President Barack Obama warned Mahmoud Abbas in a letter that U.S.-Palestinian relations might suffer if the Palestinian leader refuses to resume direct peace talks with Israel, a senior PLO official said Saturday.

The White House had no comment Saturday. However, the Obama administration has been pushing Abbas hard in recent days to move quickly to face-to-face negotiations.

The PLO official said Obama sent the letter - the strongest U.S. warning to Abbas yet - on July 16.

That would mean that in the 2 weeks after Obama wrote this letter, warning Abbas that failure to meet directly with Netanyahu would affect US ties with Abbas and the Palestinian Authority:

• Obama upgraded the status of the PA offices in Washington
• The Arab League gave Abba their backing in taking his time in meeting directly with Netanyahu

One may assume that that latter result was guaranteed by the former.

Obama has threatened that failure to meet with Netanyahu will adversely affect US-PA relations--and no one seems to care.

Apparently, Obama has taken the skills he demonstrated in negotiating  with Iran and has applied them to Abbas and the Arabs.

When will he get to the point that, as with Iran, Obama will apply real pressure on Abbas?

Technorati Tag: Obama and Abbas.