The Clinton Guarantees To Israel May Be Conditional

I have written before about the promises being made to Israel in return for an extension of its unilateral moratorium on construction--about the promises being removed and about the questions still surrounding it.

Now we find that there is an additional question: Are these simply good-faith promises in return for an attempt to get the peace talks moving again--or are all of these promises "cash on delivery": dependent on an agreement being reached with Abbas and the Palestinian Authority?

According to Likud Minister Uzi Landau: US Demanding Much More Than 3-Month Freeze:

"All the American promises share a similar characteristic – they lack specifics, and are not carried out if they are found to be damaging to American interests.” That was the case with the 2003 letter Bush presented Sharon, ostensibly recognizing Israel's right to retain the “settlement blocs” in the event of a deal with the PA; in the end, that American promise has been rescinded by President Barack Obama because he has decided it is in American interests to do so.

“Here too, with the Obama promises, we must see the structure of the deal – and you see that the Americans are demanding that we come to a full agreement with the PA in order for the benefits to kick in,"Landau explained. "You only get the benefits in the event of a final-status agreement – only when everything is over.” Given the history of Israel-PA negotiations, the likelihood of that happening is “very low,” he added.

If that is true, it raises the question of what Abbas is expecting, and will be getting, from the US? After all, Abbas has made clear that like Israel, he expects to get something from the US

After Israel received a list of promises from the United States in exchange for agreeing to an additional settlement construction freeze, Palestinian sources said Monday morning that their leadership in Ramallah was awaiting a guarantees and aid package from Washington as well.

The Palestinian sources told the London-based Arabic-language al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper that the commitments would be given in exchange for a Palestinian agreement to renew direct peace talks with Israel.

Assuming that Obama gives in to Abbas--a good bet--how much of Abbas's package be given up front as opposed to being performance-based?

Since Abbas is expecting something out of the US not for helping to make the peace talks work,  but just for showing up, it is likely that Abbas will expect what he receives to be delivered up front--another one of those "confidence-building measures" that he can show off.

How does Obama get into these messes?

Technorati Tag: Mideast Peace Talks.