Poll: How Has The Arab View Changed Towards Having Their Own State?

Back in August, the Arab World for Research & Development (AWRD), published a poll that included the following question:

With regards to the final status of Palestine and Israel please indicate which of the following you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable or Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.

	Essential	Desirable	Acceptable	Tolerable	Unacceptable
Historic Palestine – from the Jordan River to the sea as a national homeland for Palestinians	78.2	12.5	4.3	3.1	2.0
Two state solution – two states for two peoples: Israel and Palestine according to UN resolutions	17.7	15.7	13.6	15.2	37.7
One joint state – a state in which Israelis and Palestinians are equal citizens between the Jordan River and the sea.	9.6	14.8	13.5	15.0	47.1
One shared state – bi-national federal state in which Israelis and Palestinians share power	5.3	9.3	12.6	16.5	56.2
Confederation between West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt	4.7	8.2	9.8	13.5	63.8

The results back then indicated that nearly 80% of the Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza were in favor of a one state solution--that is, one state for the Arabs.

What a difference a couple of months can make!

It's a little tricky to compare the current results with the results from 2 months ago--the options about a joint/shared state have been combined and the option to answer "Don't Know" has been added.
Still, while a large majority of the Arabs favor a one state solution for just the Arabs, there seems to be a decrease in how insistent they are on that point in a poll taken in October.

See below (numbers in parentheses are from the earlier poll):

With regard to the final status of Palestine and Israel please indicate which of the following you consider to be Essential, Desirable, Acceptable, Tolerable, or Unacceptable as part of a peace agreement.
	Essential	Desirable	Acceptable	Tolerable	Unacceptable	Don't Know
Historic Palestine – From the Jordan River to the sea	64.8% (78.2)	18.3% (12.5)	8.8% (4.3)	4.5 (3.1)	2.6 (2.0)	1.0%
One State Solution – Israelis and Palestinians share power and are equal citizens between the Jordanian River and sea	6.3%	18.5%	15.8%	13.9%	44.5%	1.1%
Two State Solution - Israel and Palestine established according to UN resolutions	22.0% (17.7)	20.3%(15.7)	15.6%(13.6)	11.3%(15.2)	11.3% (37.7)	1.5%
Confederation - Between the West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt	4.1%(4.7)	10.9%(8.2)	10.1%(9.8)	11.4%(13.5)	60.1% (63.8)	3.3%

Still, it is one thing to consider what is your most essential requirement--it is another to consider what is actually achievable:

In your opinion, which of the above scenarios is the most realistic/achievable?
	West Bank	Gaza	Total
Historic Palestine – From the Jordan River to the sea	26.0%	37.4%	30.5%
One State Solution – Israelis and Palestinians share power and are equal citizens between the Jordanian River and sea	16.5%	9.7%	13.8%
Two State Solution - Israel and Palestine established according to UN resolutions	46.9%	41.8%	44.8%
Confederation - Between the West Bank and Jordan and between Gaza and Egypt	10.7%	11.0%	10.8%

The upshot of the poll appears to be that the Arabs are less adamant about what their "Dream State" is going to be like, while at the same time there is a realization that the most likely option is a 2 state solution--something that was not clear in the August poll.

Other results of the poll:

If Palestinian negotiators delivered a peace settlement that includes a Palestinian State but had to make compromises on key issues (right of return, Jerusalem, borders, settlements, etc.) to do so would you support the result?
	West Bank	Gaza	Total
Yes	12.7%	11.5%	12.2%
No	84.0%	87.0%	85.2%
Don't Know	3.3%	1.5%	2.6%

So while the Arabs demand concessions of Israel, they are not willing to return the favor.

In your opinion, which one of the following is the best means to end the occupation and establish a Palestinian state?
	West Bank	Gaza	Total
Negotiations to reach an agreement between the two parties	24.6%	33.2%	28.0%
An international conference that imposes a settlement on all parties	22.6%	22.5%	22.6%
A non-violent popular uprising	23.5%	12.0%	19.0%
Violence	20.7%	28.9%	23.9%
Other	5.3%	2.3%	4.1%
Don't Know	3.3%	1.0%	2.4%

Which leads to the obvious question:

If Violence, using what tools?
	West Bank	Gaza	Total
Violent attacks against only the Israeli military	14.4%	2.7%	9.3%
Violent attacks against Israeli settlers	9.6%		5.4%
Both A and B	63.0%	57.5%	60.6%
Violent attacks against civilians in Israel through suicide bombers and any other means	13.0%	39.8%	24.7%

Why does the poll leave out the obvious option "all of the above"?
More importantly--When Arabs want to strike out at Israeli civilians, they don't want to single out "the settlers"--they want to strike out against Israeli civilians in general. That would seem to run counter to the 'common wisdom' that the settlers in particular are targeted by Arab terrorists and are thus themselves to blame for whatever happens to them.

Another point made by the poll is that apparently Fatah in general--and Abbas in particular--are more popular than their counterparts.

Pity that Abbas doesn't seem about to take advantage of that and run for re-election so that he can be the actual legal leader in the West Bank.

But then again, why should he care--nobody else does.

Hat tip: IMRA

Technorati Tag: Poll and Palestinian+State and Mideast Peace Talks.