Republican House Important For Israel--Not For Just For The Agenda It Stops, But For The Agenda It Pushes

In the aftermath of the election, prognostications and analysis about the various races is being replaced with more prognostication and analysis--now about how the Republican win will affect US policy, both at home and abroad.

One immediate focus is the effect the reconstituted Congress will have on US policy towards the moribund Mideast peace talks in general and towards Israel in particular.

The Radio Free Europe website features an article on Obama's weakened foreign policy, that:

there is one clear bottom line from this election: Obama emerges from it a weakened president. And that, says ex-U.S. diplomat Elliott Abrams, means that "anyone who is trying to resist him feels probably that resistance is a little easier." That will probably hold true in the case of the Middle East peace talks, where the U.S. president has been pushing the Israelis and Palestinians to come to an accord.

Now, says Abrams, "both sides out there [will] feel a little bit freer to push back." And they're almost certainly not the only ones who will see it that way.

But while Israel will benefit from the decreased US pressure to make further unilateral concessions, the Republican victory brings with it another, equally important, benefit to Israel--a potential increase in pressure on Iran:

Most importantly, their victory now gives the Republicans control over the House's all-important policy committees. The new chairmen and chairwomen of those committees are, without exception, established conservatives with long foreign-policy track records.

Elliott Abrams, a former U.S. diplomat now working for the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think tank, says that the fresh prominence of such leaders will certainly lead to a "harder line" on U.S. efforts against Iran's nuclear program. "I think there'd be a push for a hard line that says any negotiated deal would have to be with zero enrichment," he says, referring to proposals that would allow Iran to enrich some uranium for ostensibly civilian purposes in return for accepting restrictions on military use.

"I think you'll see very strong support for what the administration's doing on economic sanctions against Iran." He notes that Congress has a record of leading the agenda on sanctions dating back to the previous administration of George W. Bush -- a trend that is unlikely to change under the new Republican leadership in the House.

Read the whole thing.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out: Obama's reduced influence and stature as a result from the Democrat loss of the House--along with the increased voice and influence of Conservatives.

Iran will certainly feel even freer (if such a thing is possible) to push back against Washington. The question will now be how the Republicans will react.

We've already seen how Obama responded.

Hat tip: Jennifer Rubin

Crossposted at Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Iran and Election Results and Elections 2010.