Tunisia: Reason For The West To Hope For Democracy--And Fear The Islamists

While the general reaction in the media and among pundits is hope that the ouster of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali may serve as an inspiration to other Muslim countries to overthrow their dictators and perhaps move towards democracy, there has not been much discussion in the way of how the turmoil in Tunisia benefits the Islamists.

An exception to this is Daniel Pipes, who writes about how the turmoil in Tunisia may benefit the Islamists in Tunisia and inspire the Islamists in other Muslim countries.

Pipes focuses on 3 concerns:

• In Tunisia itself, in the overthrow of Mr. Ben Ali we see the fall of a foe of Islamism who opposed both terrorists as well as the Islamist propagandists in the schools and TV studios. Pipes expects Islamists in Tunisia to attempt to exploit the opportunity provided them with Ben Ali's exit. Along those lines, Rached Ghannouchi--the leader of Tunisia's main Islamist organization, Ennahda--has announced he intends to return to Tunisia for the first time since 1989. The question is, whether the new government will be able to maintain power and prevent an Islamist surge?
  
  
• Beyond Tunisia, the second concern is about Europe, which has already demonstrated its inability to deal with the Islamist challenge. If Ennahda is successful is successful in taking power and expanding its influence--not to mention smuggling weapons to allies in Europe, the Islamist problem in Europe would be made even worse.
  
  
• Thirdly, there is the potential of a domino effect on other Arabic-speaking countries--and we are not talking about the overthrow of Muslim dictators and the spread of democracy. Instead, the speed and ease with which Ben Ali was removed could serve as an inspiration to Islamists to themselves get rid of their own tyrants.

On that last point, Pipes writes:

All four North African littoral states – Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Egypt – fit this description, as do Syria, Jordan and Yemen to the east. That Mr. Ben Ali took refuge in Saudi Arabia implicates that country too. Pakistan could also fit the template. In contrast to the Iranian revolution of 1978-79, which required a charismatic leader, millions on the street, and a full year's worth of effort, events in Tunisia unfolded quickly and in a more generic, reproducible way.

Read the whole thing.

Perhaps that explains the difference between the reactions of Hamas and the PLO to Tunisia--while Hamas sees the potential for expanding Islamist influence, the secular leadership of the West Bank is wary of the dangers.

We all saw the lukewarm response of the Obama administration to the popular demonstrations in Iran against Ahmadinejad's stolen election.

If in fact there are attempts by Islamists to kick out dictators and take over power for themselves, will the response of the Obama administration be any stronger?

Technorati Tag: Tunisia and Islamists.