The 3 Loneliest Countries In The Middle East

The current wave of protests will have a number of consequences in the long term--but in the short term, one of the things these protests have done is highlighted the isolation of 3 different countries in the Middle East.

One obvious one, of course, is Israel. In addition to the problematic borders with Gaza and Lebanon, now Egypt is up in the air--with the prospect of an Islamist takeover. Jordan too has had to deal with protests. The recent story of a Jordanian minister claiming that a Jordanian who murdered 7 Israeli girls is a hero who should be released from prison--served as a reminder that Jordan can not be taken for granted either.

But Israel is not alone in feeling increased isolation these days--Saudi Arabia is feeling isolated too:

As pro-democracy uprisings spread across the Middle East, Saudi authorities are feeling increasingly isolated and concerned that Washington may no longer be a reliable backer, officials and diplomats told the New York Times.

"The Saudis are completely encircled by the problem, from Jordan to Iraq to Bahrain to Yemen," said one Arab diplomat, voicing a view that is common in the halls of power in Riyadh.

"Saudi Arabia is the last heavyweight U.S. ally in the region facing Iran," he said.

Speaking of Iran, Michael Totten writes that the Iranian people will have a harder time than the Egyptians did--not only because the Iranian government is more repressive, but also because if the people are successful in overthrowing the government, the Iranian leaders have nowhere to run to:

[O]nly three Middle Eastern countries could conceivably give shelter to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, and they're all long shots.

The Iranian regime is a Shia theocracy, and almost all Muslim lands are governed by Sunnis. That poses a serious problem for theocratic Shias all by itself. Iraq is an exception, but Tehran sponsored militias that tried to destroy Baghdad's elected Shia-dominated government. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has tried to establish decent relations with Iran lately, but he also sent his army into battle alongside Americans against Iranian-sponsored militias.

The Syrian government is the junior partner in the Iran-led Resistance Bloc, but it's an alliance of convenience on both sides. If the Islamic Republic regime is pushed over, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will have no incentive whatever to give aid and comfort to Iran's vanquished former oppressors. They would no longer be useful to him.

Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have genuine supporters in the Hezbollah-controlled parts of Lebanon, but, like Syria, Hezbollah derives most of its power from its alliance with Tehran's current regime. A moderate Iranian government would almost certainly cut off support for Hezbollah and undermine its dominant position in Lebanese politics. The odds that Beirut would grant asylum to ex-dictators who once sponsored a terrorist army inside the country are not large.

Iran's tyrants could be offered a miserable and alienated retirement in a place like Russia, but that's not likely either. There's no upside to sheltering these characters.

The Saudis are willing to help out their fellow Arab Sunnis, but despotic Persian Shias will find themselves completely alone in the world once their power is gone. [emphasis added]

Almost makes you feel sorry for the neighborhood bully.
And you thought Israel had it tough.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Saudi Arabia and Iran.