No-Fly Zone In Libya? But What Will Iran Say!

While the discussion about a no-fly zone is about Libya, the issue of intervention in Libya is also about Iran:

The Iranian factor is little discussed but omnipresent. Understanding how it forms the backdrop is crucial to understanding the argument unfolding this week, in Washington, in Europe and at the United Nations, about whether to impose a no-fly zone over Libya.


Those pushing for intervention worry that the lesson Iran will take away if Mr. Gadhafi survives is that leaders who give ground to democracy protesters (see Hosni Mubarak) are swept away. Meanwhile, those who brutally crush protesters (Libya's strongman) are the ones who hang on. For Iranian leaders already disposed to crushing their own pro-democracy dissidents, the message will be clear.

Those wary of intervening, including many in the Obama administration, worry that Western intervention will play directly into the narrative Tehran's leaders have been spinning to justify cracking down on their own dissidents: that the U.S. and its Zionist allies are waiting to take advantage of any Mideast unrest to seize control of the region and its oil assets.

So let me get this straight:

• Those who push for the no-fly zone are afraid that Iran will be emboldened to continue crushing protests mercilessly.
• Those--like the Obama administration--are afraid...Iran will be able to justify crushing the protests.

One is afraid of what Iran will do, the other is afraid of what Iran will say?

Of course there are a number of other reasons and factors that are going into the decision by the Obama administration why intervening in Libya is  a bad idea.

And after Gaddafi returns to power, the Obama administration will have plenty of time to tell us all about them.

Technorati Tag: Obama and Libya and Iran and Protests.