Obama's New Middle East Policy May Not Be So Different After all

Earlier today, I blogged that it appeared Obama was ready to play hardball with Netanyahu, based on a copy of a rough draft of a Yediot Aharonot article available online.

Now the actually article is up--and it claims that the prognosis for Obama's Middle East policy is not so bad:

the American president's Middle East policy, though unwavering, may not be as discordant as some have feared.


Obama is expected to urge Israel to return to the 1967 lines while negating the Palestinian Authority's planned unilateral bid for statehood in September.

While he is expected to reiterate that Israel should put a freeze on building in the settlements, it appears that Obama plans an evenhanded approach:

Obama stands to demand the Palestinian Authority recognize Israel as the Jewish state, and that the Palestinians unequivocally abandon terror.

He is also likely to stress Israel must cease any settlement expansion in the West Bank and further avoid any act which could be construed as changing the status quo on the ground.

The subject of Jerusalem also stands to be included in the American president's speech: Washington sees the city as the capital of both Israel and the Palestinian state, with its east Jerusalem neighborhoods – which are largely populated by Palestinians – under the PA's sovereignty, and its Jewish neighborhoods under Israeli sovereignty.

Refusing to back Abbas's plan to go to the UN in September will be a major disappointment to Abbas. But in addition, demanding that the Palestinian Arabs give up terrorism puts Abbas on the spot..

Unlike before, when such a demand was directed at Hamas, now with the so-called unity government of Hamas and Fatah, the demand for an end to terrorism would be directed to Mahmoud Abbas. If he is serious, one would expect Obama to apply real pressure on Abbas to put an end to terror, and perhaps even to at least allow visits to Gilad Shalit by the Red Cross.

Is Obama prepared to make such demands of Abbas--and do what is necessary to make them stick?

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