Barry Rubin: Questions and Answers on Palestinian Authority Unilateral Independence Bid

Questions and Answers on Palestinian Authority Unilateral Independence Bid

by Barry Rubin

1) What are the chances that the PA achieves a triumph at the UN?

It depends on what you mean by the word “triumph.” Will a Palestinian state that doesn’t even control the Gaza Strip (half the territory it claims), has not kept its diplomatic commitments, and doesn’t seek a peace agreement with Israel get recognition for unilateral independence? No. Because if the proposal passes the General Assembly it will still be vetoed by the United States in the Security Council.

A triumph may include public relations’ successes plus the recognition by several more countries—though many countries have recognized such a state since it was declared in 1988. Yet in material terms it will change nothing. By the same token, it would mean that the entire year 2011 has passed without negotiations, delaying the creation of a real Palestinian state.

2) If the Palestinian state is recognized in the UN, what are the consequences for Israel?

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Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, to be published by Yale University Press in January 2012. You can read more of Barry Rubin's posts at Rubin Reports, and now on his new blog, Rubin Reports, on Pajamas Media

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