Mideast Media Sampler 08/02/2011

From DG:

1) The wages of hesitation

The Washington Post has another strong editorial about Syria, Syria's Ramadan Massacre.

It's not the main thrust of the editorial, but this observation was interesting:

The attack reflects Mr. Assad’s desperation; the regime appears to see no way to save itself other than by waging war on the civilian population. But Mr. Assad clearly is also calculating that those who suppose that dictators can no longer get away with massacres are wrong. He has some basis for that conclusion: NATO may have intervened in Libya to prevent the slaughter of civilians by Moammar Gaddafi, but Western leaders have publicly and vehemently ruled out intervention in Libya. The U.N. Security Council has failed to speak out against Mr. Assad’s assaults on other cities, as has the Arab League.

The term "ruled out intervention" is unclear, but I assume it means "ruled out more involved intervention." In other words the restraint shown towards Qaddafi (I believe I read that when the NATO attacks on Libya had lasted as long as those against Serbia, NATO had only launched one third the number of sorties) not only failed to dislodge Qaddafi, but sent a signal to Assad.

2) Summer fun

Ethan Bronner writes in Israelis Feel Tug of Protests, Reviving the Left’s Spirits 

In the space of two weeks, that conventional wisdom has softened with the rise of a huge protest movement over the cost of living and the sense that, despite soaring national wealth, the paycheck of the average Israeli does not cover family expenses. What started as a modest Facebook-driven protest by young people over housing prices has mushroomed into what many analysts suspect could be one of the more significant political developments here in years — and a possible opening for the defeated left. 

When he writes, "many analysts suspect" does he really mean, "most of the analysts I spoke to hope?"

Caroline Glick takes a different approach arguing that it isn't the Left that being buoyed by the protests, but the Left that's helping them along. (h/t Martin Kramer)

At every opportunity, the protesters claim they are apolitical and the media go along with them. Yet as a handful of bloggers have shown, more than eighty percent of the protest leaders are professional far Left activists. For instance, Maariv bloggers Uri Redler and Rotem Sela researched the affiliation of all the speakers at the July 23rd rally in Tel Aviv. They found that out of 27 speakers, 21 are known leftist activists affiliated with Hadash, the communist party, with Meretz, with the New Israel Fund, with the Nationalist Left proto-party, and with the anarchists.

Redler and Sela also exposed that several "grassroots," leaders are in fact professional political operatives affiliated with communist politicians and radical pressure groups. For instance, an activist named Tzika Bashour announced on Facebook that he would begin a general strike on August 1. Yediot Ahronot and Ynet covered his move as an authentic call of distress by an Average Joe.

Walter Russell Mead dismisses the protests (h/t Martin Kramer):

A revival of the Israeli left would make President Obama’s life easier: Labor governments are usually more willing to help the US nudge the peace process along.  But don’t hold your breath. 100,000 people demonstrating against a dictator is a crisis; 100,000 in a democracy means it’s a sunny day.

He then quotes the comments from the closing paragraphs of Bronner's article.


Bronner quotes an important observation:

Two decades ago, when Yitzhak Rabin defeated Yitzhak Shamir for prime minister, ending 15 years of domination by the conservative Likud Party, Mr. Rabin spoke of the need “to change the national order of priorities and the allocation of financial resources.” He largely froze settlement building in the West Bank and Gaza and said he was redirecting resources to the towns in the Israeli Negev and Galilee.
The left today hopes to revive itself with similar plans. The mayor of Beersheba, Ruvik Danilovich, who is an independent with roots in Labor, said in an interview in Maariv on Sunday that the theme of the new movement is “social justice, meaning a change in priorities.” He listed education, health care and affordable housing. He added of the Saturday night protest, “This was a landmark event. The norms that have been accepted in the past will not be in the future.” 

The left hopes that in the coming year or two it could sweep back to power through a focus on social issues and then, in the bargain, shift the country’s external policy. The left would heavily curtail settlement building in the West Bank and has shown greater willingness to yield territory to the Palestinians and to share Jerusalem in a two-state solution. 

The final paragraph quoted mentions, the "country's external policy." That seems to be code for the peace process. But of course the Left couldn't win running on the peace process. Despite the implication of that paragraph (that a governing coalition of the Left would move the peace process forward) most Israelis realize that the lack of peace or a final settlement isn't due to Israeli intransigence.




3) Assad the anchor


According to retired Gen. Shimon Shapira, Hezbollah's association with Assad is hurting Hezbollah. (via Daily Alert)

• Five years after the Second Lebanon War, a war whose results Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah considers a "divine victory," Hizbullah has currently reached one of its lowest points due to the endangered survival of the Assad regime in Syria, as well as the international tribunal that has demanded the extradition of four Hizbullah members suspected of murdering former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri. 

• Damascus functions as the primary bridge between Iran and Hizbullah in terms of all military and other assistance arriving from Tehran. This comes on top of the direct transfer of rocket and missile weaponry from the Syrian army's arms depots to Hizbullah's fighting units.

• Hizbullah has adopted a clear-cut stand in support of Bashar Assad, and therefore Hizbullah flags are being burned in the streets of Syria together with Nasrallah's portrait. Without Syrian backing, Hizbullah will find it hard to continue dictating political moves in Lebanon.

• Recent signs of Hizbullah's weakened position include the public revelation of an espionage network run by the CIA of people in important positions within the movement; the open sale of alcoholic beverages in Nabatiye, Hizbullah's capital in southern Lebanon; and the attempt by the Lebanese government to appoint a security chief for Beirut International Airport from within the Maronite community, contrary to Hizbullah's wishes.

• In light of all this, Nasrallah is looking for a new pretext to confront Israel, focusing this time on the gas fields that Israel is developing within its maritime economic zone. Nasrallah believes his threats will distract attention from the decline in Hizbullah's status and the international accusations that it currently faces.

4) A Clash of civilizations?


The New York Times reviews Robin Wright's "Rock the Casbah."


After noting Wright's thesis, the reviewer observes:

The main weakness of the book has to do with methodology: Ms. Wright’s tendency to focus on portraits of reform-minded protesters, women’s rights activists and daring, social-minded artists results in profiles of some remarkable individuals, but it can also lead to a heavily anecdotal narrative in which it can be difficult for the reader to tell just how widespread a given trend is, or what its prospects for taking root in the near future might be. 

This has often been the problem with the coverage of the Arab spring. It has often involved looking the other way towards the strength of Islamist organizations involved in the revolutions. It also requires looking past some of the decidedly illiberal views held by the even the secular, liberal reformers.


Reading the review, it's easy to conclude that Wright accepts the belief that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood are pragmatic. But pragmatic doesn't necessarily mean liberal or moderate. (h/t Martin Kramer)

Pragmatism, however, is double-edged. While the necessities of modern life, or an authoritarian regime, may force pragmatic Islamists such as the MB to pursue courses they deem incompatible with Islam, such as working for banks, pressure from moiré ideologically committed and less pragmatic groups such as the Salafis, in a democratic Egypt, could have the MB embrace a stricter line to win their votes.

This dynamic -- well understood and anticipated by every Islamist -- undermines all optimistic analyses about secessions and differences within the Islamist spectrum. Ahmed El-Naqib, for instance, one of the most respected Salafi authorities, responded to the question if Salafis would support the MB in the elections by saying: "If the MB could, through our help, come to power, what is the problem? We help them. They are not infidels (kafirs). The shoe of one member of the MB is closer to us than a nation of those infidels." When one of the listeners raised the objection that "[the MB's] statements are scary [meaning too soft]," Al-Naqib reassured him: "It is because they are being watched. Nazarenes [the Salafist term for Christians] are watching them. America is watching them. The secular parties are watching them. They try to come with arguments that do not scare people off. But we should remain barefaced. We should remain the scarecrows. These have to be scared as well. Thus a hand taps the shoulder, and a hand slaps the neck."

5) Followup

The other day I referred to Malki Roth. I mis-typed her name "Mali." Thanks to Carl for catching the mistake.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Middle East.