After What Happened To Mubarak And Gaddafi, Don't Expect Assad To Leave So Soon

In Syria, the unarmed protests are turning into armed attacks by former soldiers:

Insurgents fired rocket-propelled grenades at the offices of the ruling Baath Party in Damascus on Sunday in a highly symbolic strike that signaled a new chapter in the eight-month uprising against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad.

It was the second attack in days in the capital, which had so far largely been spared the unrest in other cities.

...Military defectors and armed insurgents have carried out attacks on government installations since the start of the uprising eight months ago, but the attack in Damascus on Sunday was the first to strike at the heart of the government’s base.

The problem: After seeing what happened to Mubarak and Gaddafi--where is Assad supposed to go?


Back in August, the Associated Press noted: Egypt’s Mubarak moral to Arab rulers: Fight hard and cling to power at any cost:

Syria’s Bashar Al Assad, Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh are likely to step up violence, judging that they must wipe out the uprisings against them to ensure their own protection. If negotiations do occur, then they are even more certain than before to demand that any deal include immunity or safe exile. And their opponents, more determined than ever to see their leaders in the same dock as Mr. Mubarak, may be less likely to accept those conditions.

“That’s the lesson Arab leaders have learned: Mr. Mubarak gave up too easily (and) without a fight,” said Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. “They think Mubarak was soft.”

Michael Totten wrote about this problem back in February: Iran's Leaders May Have Nowhere to Run

Barry Rubin made a similar observation--that Syria's Alawite regime has few friends:

Syria is run by the Alawite minority who simply aren’t real Muslims but pretend to be Shia when that suits them. The Alawites know that a revolution would almost certainly produce an Islamist takeover and certainly a Sunni Muslim one. And such a regime would line a lot of the Alawites up against a wall and…bang, bang, bang.

That’s a good incentive for shooting down unarmed demonstrators. Kill or be killed.

Bottom line: while it has now popular now to predict that Assad cannot maintain power for much longer and will have to leave--unless a he is guaranteed a safe exit, Assad's reign will be longer and bloodier than anyone wants.


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