A few years ago, back when I was a young reporter in the Gaza Strip, I met with one of the senior officers in the Southern Command and what he told me then echoes in my head to this day. "If the Palestinians fire one, just one mortar round, we will make them regret it and never think about doing it again."
...As a citizen of a democratic nation, do I not deserve to have my democratically elected government do everything in its power to defend me, my family and my neighbors? It is a bit strange that we are so keen on attacking the Palestinians for every rocket they fire at us, but when talking about Iran, then suddenly we cannot thwart the real threat?
Itsik Saban, From Gaza to Iran, Israel Hayom
A comparison between the threats from Iran and Gaza is more than merely theoretical.
Dr. Aaron Lerner of IMRA quotes a poll that indicates there are Israelis who would consider leaving Israel if Iran acquires a nuclear bomb:
Poll carried out Wednesday night 2 November 2011 by Dialogue for Haaretz ofSaban refers to Israel's reaction to the rockets from Gaza as a "stuttering response"--is Israel's response to Iran much better?
a representative sample of 495 adults Israelis (including Israeli Arabs).
Statistical error +/- 4.6 percentage points and published in Haaretz on 3
and 4 November 2011
Should Israel attack the Iranian nuclear facilities?
Yes 41% No 39% Don't know/no reply 20%
Are you confident in the decisions made in the Iranian matter by PM
Netanyahu and DM Barak?
Yes 52% No 37% Don’t know/no reply 11%
Should there be public discussion of the attack or does this cause damage?
Causes damage 51% Important to have discussion 39% Don't know 10%
What are the chances that attacking Iran will cause a war against Hezbollah
and Hamas?
High 59% Moderate 21% Low 7% No chance 5% Don't know 8%
If Iran gets an atomic bomb will you consider leaving Israel?
Yes 11% No 84% Don't know 5%
Aside from the continued threats of retaliation and Israel's bombing runs against empty building in Gaza, Israel did finally launch Operation Cast Lead--which led to a decrease in the number of rockets, but did not remove the threat in general nor Hamas in particular.
Israel does not have the same option of small individual attacks or bombing empty buildings when it comes to Iran--and if an Iranian Operation Cast Lead is launched, it better be more effective tactically, because the blowback will be much bigger in terms of PR, not to mention the potential military repercussions.
Saban points out that similar warnings of repercussions were made to Begin prior to Israel taking out Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor. Begin's decision was vindicated 10 years later during the first Persian Gulf War when Iraqi SCUDs forces Israelis into bomb shelters.
But the bottom line is that the Israeli response to Gaza has not been decisive. Whatever may be going on behind the scenes between Israel and Gaza, the fact remains that Hamas and Islamic Jihad appear undeterred.
As the clock ticks down to when Iran does acquire a nuclear arsenal, the Israel's failure neutralize the threat from Gaza does not reassure one about its prospects for dealing effectively with the Iranian threat.
And 11% of Israelis polled agree with me.
Technorati Tag: Israel and Gaza and Iran.
I may be wrong but you seem to forget that there are only two possible solution for the Israel/palestinians situation: total extermination or peace. Israel got the ghetto thing right but I really doubt your people is willing to go the extermination solution. So why do not Israel and the Palestinian Authority start using real diplomacy to solve the issue? The talks between Israel+US and Palestinian Authority is not real diplomacy, it's just politicians trying to accomplish nothing for the sake of been considered right.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking more on the Iranian angle.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of solutions--there is always the third solution: ongoing quagmire. George Will once said that the situation in the Middle East is not a "problem": problems imply solutions.
Instead, George Will said, the situation in the Middle East is a mess.
But since we are talking about solutions...
Considering the fact that Abbas's term in office ended 3 years ago, wouldn't it be a good idea for the PA to have elections so Israel can negotiate with someone who has the authority to make agreements that might actually stand?
In the end, there is no getting around some of the politics.
Also, do you believe there is a Palestinian Arab leader who feels he can enter into direct negotiations with Israel that would require making any kind of concession--such as a right of return for the children and grandchildren of those who left?
As far as getting the "ghetto thing" right--I think it is more accurate to see it as a response to Hamas's attempt to get your "extermination" thing right.