Barry Rubin: What Does Israel Do if Obama Is Reelected?

Barry Rubin addresses the question: What Does Israel Do if Obama Is Reelected?

Rubin breaks down the problem of a second Obama term as president into 4 separate issues, and examines each in depth:

1. Maintaining bilateral relations

   
   Israel’s government needs to ensure the continuation of U.S. aid, including assistance for anti-missile systems; intelligence sharing; and other forms of cooperation.
   
   

2. Keep Obama from damaging Israel’s situation in regard to the Palestinians

   
   Obama will have to decide whether to put an emphasis on the Israel-Palestinian “peace process,” meaning pressure on Israel to make concessions while the Palestinian Authority (PA) doesn’t keep its commitments and makes no compromises. He might decide to do so based on his ideological predispositions.
   
   Yet there is some evidence that Obama won’t behave this way.
   
   

3. How would Obama handle the regional Arab situation and threats from revolutionary Islamist forces that he has helped to unleash and even to put into power?

   
   In my view, the number one danger Israel faces is not Iran, but Egypt.
   
   

4. Iran

   
   Briefly, there is no way that Obama would attack Iran or support an Israeli attack no matter what Tehran does. American sanction efforts would continue hand in hand with Iran going full speed ahead on obtaining nuclear weapons. Israel would still attack Iranian facilities if this were deemed necessary for national survival, but the bar on what constituted acceptable reasons for attacking would be raised.

It's the latter 2 issues that now present the greater danger.

In Egypt, for example, a new radical Muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt wants to wipe Israel off the map -- and is willing to help the Hamas terrorist in control of Gaza. Along those lines, one can expect sporadic attacks from Gaza against Israel, while the Obama administration will remain aloof. And rather than store weapons in civilian areas, Hamas will be able to store weapons in Egypt.

Bottom line, as Rubin makes clear, Israel will be able to rely on a second term of Obama -- to make matters worse.

Read the whole thing.

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Technorati Tag: Israel and Obama and Election 2012.