Arlene Kushner on Israel's War of Pre-emption Against Syria and Hezbollah

From Arlene Kushner:
May 16, 2013:

Dead Serious

The NYTimes ran a piece yesterday in which it directly quoted a "senior Israeli official" -- who according to the JPost had contacted the Times (emphasis added):

"Israel is determined to continue to prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah.  The transfer of such weapons to Hezbollah will destabilize and endanger the entire region.

"If  Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate."

Read: 'Israel determined to stop Syrian weapons transfer'

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There was no response to this report from the prime minister's office, but I will tell you that these are not just idle words: Israel's government is absolutely determined to prevent sophisticated, game-changing weapons from reaching Hezbollah.  The official hinted that more strikes such as the ones we (presumably) just saw may be in the planning.

Author Avigdor Haselkorn, writing in the JPost today, in "The war over preemption," has provided one of the clearest explanations I've seen yet as to the dynamics involved -- and why Israel ain't just foolin' here (emphasis is added):

Hezbollah -- allegedly already in possession of some 50,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching Israeli population centers -- does not need more of the same to hit Israeli cities, says Haselkorn.

"The solid-fuel, highly accurate, long-range (300 km) Fateh-110 missiles, armed with half-ton warheads, which was reportedly targeted by the IAF in the latest strike in Syria were not meant to attack Israeli cities. The Fateh-110 is a counter-force weapon designed to attack high value, pinpoint military and strategic targets. Indeed, it is all but certain that the provision of such missiles by Iran to Hezbollah is another step in the undeclared Israeli- Iranian war over preemption already underway.

"...by equipping Hezbollah with the latest version of Fateh-110 – the MOD 4 – Iran is hoping to accomplish three strategic goals: First, to deter Israel from launching a preemptive strike on its nuclear facilities by holding hostage Israel’s Dimona reactor as well as other strategic installations identified in the foreign press as housing the Israeli nuclear arsenal and/or its delivery platforms...

"As well, Tehran is signaling Washington that any thought of a surgical strike on Iranian facilities is a dangerous hallucination as the outcome would be a nuclear catastrophe in the Middle East, given Iran’s ability to accurately attack Israeli nuclear installations via Hezbollah’s upgraded missiles...

"Second, by providing its Lebanese proxies with highly accurate missiles the Iranians are attempting to turn the tables on Israel – they are developing their own capability to launch a preemptive strike against Israeli strategic facilities. Iranian leaders have already threatened to undertake such action...

"Third, by boosting Hezbollah’s stock of highly accurate missiles Tehran is seeking to enable its proxy to launch heavier salvos,perhaps in conjunction with the Syrian-provided Scud-D missiles reportedly already in Hezbollah’s arsenal. The aim is to assure hits on key strategic targets despite Israel’s missile defenses. Clearly, irrespective of its pooh-poohing of its capabilities, Tehran is worried by the recent stellar performance of the Iron Dome system.

"The bottom line is that Iran is laboring hard to prevent an Israeli preemption while developing its own option – via Hezbollah – of launching a preemptive attack on Israel’s most vital strategic assets.

"It should be noted that the Iranian effort is being pursued despite repeated Israeli warnings and forceful action to stop it. Some in Israel have interpreted this Iranian determination as forced by growing fears of the mullahs and their Hezbollah brethren that...they will not be able to make use of the Tehran-Damascus-Beirut corridor much longer to transport arms and fighters. However, a more important reason is Iran’s fear of an imminent Israeli preemptive attack. In spite of Iran’s public ridicule, it appears it views with mounting concern Israeli statements that 2013 would be a year of decision.

"For its part, Israel, by acting to destroy new additions to Hezbollah’s counter-force capabilities and the means to defend them...signaled its determination to keep its preemptive option open. Further, the operational successes of the IDF’s recent military undertakings in Syria communicate to Tehran the credibility of Israel’s intentions and capabilities in this regard. Thus, as long it races toward the bomb, Iran is likely to persist if not escalate its efforts to block and/or counter the Israeli preemptive option.

"The ongoing conflict over preemption has produced two paradoxes. First, even before any military strike had been unleashed against a nuclear facility, armed conflict has erupted. The Israeli threat to use force as a last resort to stop Iran’s nuclear march had the effect of forcing Jerusalem to exert its military muscle without delay, ostensibly to preserve the final option..."

Read: The war over preemption

So it's going to get tougher before it's over, but in point of fact, Israel is already at war with Iran.

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Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu took action of another sort in an attempt to prevent an escalation of the situation in Syria with a potential shift in the balance of power:  On Tuesday morning he flew to the Black Sea city of Sochi to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with regard to the announced intention of Russia to sell state-of-the-art anti-aircraft S-300 missiles to Damascus.

Netanyahu was accompanied by National Security Council Head Ya'akov Amidror, Head of Military Intelligence Maj.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi, and Deputy Foreign Minister Ze'ev Elkin, a native Russian speaker.  Press was not permitted to participate.  Kochavi is believed to have provided Putin with intelligence regarding the situation in Russia.

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All we have from that meeting is a joint press conference during which they declared their intention to keep in touch, both personally and between special services.

Credit: alarabiya

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As for Putin, it is clear -- and this is hardly new -- that he is motivated at least in part by a desire to subvert Western, and particularly, American involvement in the area.  We might say that he gave the old one-two to Obama with the announcement of intention to sell those missiles, which followed almost immediately an announcement about Russia and the US working together to address the crisis in Syria:

Last week Moscow and Washington had announced an agreement to facilitate political dialogue between the Assad regime and rebels, and to facilitate an international conference on Syria.

(A reflection of the tenuous relationship between Russia and the US can be found in the arrest on Tuesday by the Russians of CIA agent Ryan Christopher Fogle, who was working in the American Embassy in Moscow and was caught in a sting operation when trying to recruit Russian double-agents.)

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The placement of those anti-aircraft missiles in Syrian hands would be no small matter for Israel, and worse still should they be transferred to Hezbollah.

I have picked up reports -- unconfirmed, for example from  Al-Quds Al-Arabi  -- that the missiles may already be in Syria.  In one version, it was said that only Russian technicians were managing them, in another, there was indication that Syrian technicians were already trained.

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For the first time this morning, mortar shells fired from Syria hit Mount Hermon in the Golan.  There were no casualties.  

Credit: Greenprophet

And, for the first time it is clear that the mortars didn't cross the border with Syria accidentally, during the course of fighting between Assad's troops and rebels.

This time, a group by the name of (are you ready?) Shahid Brigades of the Abd al-Kajr al-Husseini Jihad Brigades which is part of the "Free Palestine Movement" took credit via a video it released.  It said that the mortars were fired for "Nakba Day," which was just observed by Palestinian Arabs as a day of mourning that marks Israel's founding.: "We tell the Zionists that we are opening a campaign of revenge.”"

I have no information about the source of fire being identified and destroyed.  IDF patrols in the area have increased and the IDF is now re-evaluating the earlier determination that the other mortars hit Israeli soil by accident.

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It was announced just days ago that the Civil Administration (which means the administration of Judea and Samaria that works under the Ministry of Defense) was working diligently to establish a new Palestinian Arab city near Jericho, reportedly to be called Nu'aimah, which would house tens of thousands of residents and require the transfer of almost 2,000 dunam (500 acres) of land from the Jordan Valley Regional Council to the PA for the project.

The Yesha Council responded to this insanity immediately:

"The state of Israel is advancing programs for thousands of dwelling units in Area C [which is under full Israeli control] while there are wide sections of Areas A and B [under full and partial PA control] where they can be settled and they are stopping the tenders for building for Israeli settlement in Area C."

Before I had the opportunity to write about this, came the announcement that Minister of Defense Moshe Ya'alon has frozen the project.  According to Israel National News:

"MK Motti Yogev (Bayit Yehudi), who heads a subcommittee of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee which deals with issues pertaining to Judea and Samaria, contacted Yaalon...asking for details about the project. According to Ma’ariv, Yaalon told Yogev that upon learning of the plan he ordered that it be immediately stopped.

"An Israeli defense official confirmed the details, telling Ma’ariv that the Defense Minister is interested in learning the details of the plan and any consequences that may result from its application, and has asked that it be delayed until he can formulate a position on the issue."

Read: Yaalon Freezes Plans for New PA City Near Jericho

Well then, a small sigh of relief and a tentative "bravo" to Minister Ya'alon.  Now we'll have to wait to see what position he formulates.

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If truth be told, actions by the government are so schizoid that it's difficult to determine precisely what policy truly is -- or, for that matter, where our prime minister stands.

Here we have some very good news with an announcement that the State is seeking to authorize four communities -- called outposts -- in Judea and Samaria.  The announcement came in a statement to the High Court submitted on Tuesday with regard to a Peace Now petition with regard to six communities.  Good old Peace Now had demanded removal of them all.

The four communities: Givat Assaf, in the Binyamin region of Samaria; Givat Haroeh, one of the largest unauthorized communities, in the Shomron; Maale Rekhavam, in the Gush Etzion region; and Mitzpe Lakhish, in the South Hebron Hills. 

Three had been determined to have been built on State land, so there was no legal barrier to their authorization. 

Some portion of the fourth, Givat Assaf (pictured here), was built on what had been privately owned Arab land, but residents of this community -- some 30 families -- had told the court that they had purchased that land.

Now the State has accepted the residents claims.  According to the JPost, orders had come from the "upper political echelon" to the Civil Administration to "weigh the possibility of legalizing Givat Assaf."

 

Credit: Flash 90

Read: State seeks approval of four West Bank outposts

The State is working out compromises for the other two communities mentioned in the Peace Now petition, as well: In Mitzpe Yitzhar, near Yitzhar in the hills of the Shomron, two homes built on private Palestinian Arab property have been taken down and a third home will also be demolished; the implication here is that ultimately authorization may be possible for this community as well.  

In the case of Ramat Gilad, some of its homes are on State land and an agreement has been reached with its residents for many of the homes to be moved to a different part of its hilltop location.

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Contrast the upbeat position by the government, above, with this shameful action.  I had mentioned the issue of an Israeli failure to assert sovereignty the other day, and here we are:

A plan had been set in place to bring Jewish children to the Temple Mount today, as an educational follow-up to Shavuot, which was a time when first fruits were brought to the Temple.

In response to chatter on Islamic websites that the children would be met by rioters, police closed entry to the Temple Mount to all non-Muslims, out of concern for "public safety."

Wrong, wrong, wrong.  I don't care how many police or soldiers would have had to have been called out to protect the children, it should have been done.  To cave before threats of violence, so that Jewish rights are denied, is a bad move.

What is more, Jews who made it to the Mount over Shavuot (yesterday) and the day prior were severely harassed by Muslims and received scant police protection.  At one point Jewish entry at the Mughrabi Gate was blocked by Muslims. When a riot broke out, the Jews were removed from the Mount. 

I am ashamed to write this, but I must.  What is ours must be claimed as ours, and our rights made clear.

Read: Police Bar Jews from Temple Mount As Muslims Threaten More Riots

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.

If it is reproduced and emphasis is added, the fact that it has been added must be noted.

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