Tabula Gaza

One of the impediments to the creation of a Palestinian state is something that Israel cannot be expected to concede:

A senior US official acknowledged on Saturday that an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal would depend on the fate of Gaza, which is controlled by the Islamist movement Hamas.

Hamas which evicted moderate Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas's Fatah faction from Gaza in June after a week of bloodshed, meanwhile, dismissed US President George W. Bush's vision of a Palestinian state.

The US official, who declined to be named, said the fate of Bush's targeted peace deal by the end of this year depended on Abbas taking back control of the Gaza Strip.

"I don't think in the long term that an agreement is going to work if Hamas continues to control Gaza," he said.

"That's why we repeatedly said that the Palestinian Authority should resume its responsibility for the government in Gaza as well," he said. "Exactly how that is going to work I don't know, I can't predict the future."

But that is not going to stop others from guessing:

Israel is planning to assassinate exiled Hamas leader Khalid Mashaal, deposed Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, and former PA Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar, but is waiting to give the green light on the operation until after US President George W. Bush leaves the region, the London-based newspaper, Al-Hayat reported on Sunday.

Supposing that there is any truth to this, it appears that somebody jumped the gun--someone was spotted at a Hamas rally carrying a large bag that contained 4 kilograms of TNT intended for Haniyeh. Hamas gave out no details about the person or with whom he is affiliated, just a statement that

"This assassination attempt is clearly linked to the visit of US President George W. Bush to the region."

(Sort of like the jump in rockets out of Gaza.)

But seriously--just imagine that this is true, and the Israeli assassination of these men make possible the triumphant return of Abbas to Gaza: will Palestinian Arabs have any greater respect for Abbas having required both the US and Israel to give him back what he managed to lose so easily on his own?

And is Gaza, which is reputed to be home to elements of Al Qaeda and Fatah Al-Islam, going to be more or less unstable with Abbas 'in control'?

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Gaza.