It's Not Just Israel--Mideast Unrest Isn't Good For The US Either

For all the analysis of how the current protests and realignments are a danger to Israel--they are not helping the US either.

One obvious fallout of the protests is higher gas prices:

National gas prices are soaring again -- this time by 5.31 cents per gallon in the past two weeks -- to $3.18, according a survey by analyst Trilby Lundberg.

The increase mirrors a leap in crude-oil prices, which have been under upward pressure due to continued unrest in the Arab states. Futures gained as much as 1.2 percent yesterday after security forces in Libya launched attacks on anti-government protesters. Trading is closed today for the Presidents Day holiday.

But aside from the economic fallout from the wave of protests in the Middle East, there is the potential dislodging of the US presence from the Middle East, limiting the ability of the US to look after its interests and increasing instability in the region by giving greater reign to Iran. The current unrest puts the US 5th Fleet in Bahrain in jeopardy:

Could the Kingdom of Bahrain Become an Iranian Pearl Harbor?


The Islamic Republic of Iran has reiterated in the past that its military strategy is based on “asymmetric warfare“ – Tehran will not confront the U.S. and its allies directly, given the superior military technology of the West, but rather through subversion and terrorism. Bahrain is, in fact, the ideal target for such an Iranian strategy. The actual stakes in the struggle for Bahrain are far greater than one would think, given its small physical size (760 sq. km.) and its tiny population (738,000).

When the U.S. entered the Second World War, Imperial Japan launched a sea-borne airstrike against the headquarters and ships of the U.S. Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor in 1941. Today, as is well known, the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet is in Bahrain. Iran does not need to employ its air force against the U.S. naval facility, but only to topple the pro-American regime of the al-Khalifa family and replace it with a new Bahraini regime backed by the Shi’a majority which seeks the immediate withdrawal of the fleet. In 2005, Shi’a demonstrators marched in Manama, Bahrain’s capital, showing their support for Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Three years later in 2008, Shi’a demonstrators waved Hizbullah flags in Manama and called for closing U.S. bases in Bahrain.

The recent events in Bahrain have underlined the very volatile situation in which the small kingdom has been managing its affairs for the last two decades.

Withdrawal would be the only option, considering the alternative:

Such a situation and potential continued unrest could create a serious challenge to the military presence of the U.S. in the Gulf area, especially if it is exploited by Iranian agents interested in provoking havoc in an “American preserve” at a time when Tehran itself is feeling the weight of popular protest, encouraged openly by the Obama Administration.

In view of the above, there is a clear possibility that the American naval presence in Bahrain will become a target for potential Iranian terrorist acts.

And the implications for the US go beyond issues of military and security:

The protests in Bahrain, home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, have created a serious situation for the U.S. national security and for its economic interests. According to a late 2009 WikiLeaks document, U.S. companies have won major contracts between 2007-2009 that include Gulf Air’s purchase of 24 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, a $5 billion joint venture with Occidental Petroleum to revitalize the Awali field, and well over $300 million in foreign military sales.

Read the whole thing.

The US has ties to the region and personal interests that go beyond an alliance with Israel--and those US interests are now in real jeopardy.

The question is what Obama is going to do about it.

Technorati Tag: Bahrain.