Middle East Revolutions And Their Affect On The War On Terror

Benny Morris is the first I've seen to address how the current turmoil in the Middle East is going to affect the war on terror. He writes that the two components that will most directly interfere with the war on terror is Iran's ascendance and the increase in anti-Western feelings:

The regimes that have already collapsed, and will either collapse in the near future, or will suffer a large measure of curtailment of their power, are those of Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Jordan and the Gulf states. (people tend to forget that Lebanon, not Tunisia, was the "first to go", though there the threat of radical action rather than actual street violence was the precipitant). In the Gulf states, with large Shi'ite populations—such as in Bahrain, where the Shi'ites constitute the overwhelming majority—Iran's influence will vastly increase, in one or two of them, perhaps to the point of domination. One has yet to see how what is happening will affect eastern Saudi Arabia, via its large Shi'ite minority. (In recent days, I haven't seen much written about Iranian involvement in the Bahrein upheaval. I have little doubt that it was intense.)

In all the others—Lebanon, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia (where is Morocco?), Iraq, Jordan, and Yemen—help to the American "War on Terror" will be considerably reduced, or will vanish altogether, as the new regimes bow to the "will of the people" and anti-Western Muslim or secular parties.

Obama's enlightened liberalism, encouraging street protests and discouraging the regimes' clampdowns, or, alternatively, his calculation that the tiger will in any event win out so best to ride him and appear benevolent towards the regime-changers, will in the end result in growing American alienation in the Middle East.The masses will rage against America however much money Washington pours in in emergency funding (vide grassroots anti-American feelings in Pakistan, despite largescale American post-disaster assistance).

The coming realignment in the Middle East is not only going to hit Israel hard--but this is more than just Israel's problem: not only will that growing anti-West / anti-US hostility interfere with the war on terror--it may also ignite a new wave or intensify it.

Going a step further--under the current US administration, the response to any increase in hostility is at least as likely to be further appeasement than anything else. If the Palestinian Authority can demand an apology from Obama for the US veto, who knows what the other Muslim countries will want in order to improve relations.

It will be a long 2 years.

Technorati Tag: Iran and Protests and MIddle East.