The New York Times: Don't Worry, Israel--You And The New Arab Generation Share Many Of The Same Values!

I received the following email from DG:

Steve Erlanger writes at the New York Times that Upheaval Jolts Israel and Raises New Worry:

Israelis worry that Arab democracy movements will ultimately be dominated by extremists, as happened in Iran after the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah. They worry about the chaotic transition between revolt and democratic stability, if it ever comes. They see Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, even if it remains a minority of Egyptian opinion, as pressing for more solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas, the Palestinian branch of the Brotherhood. And they fear that Israel’s regional partners in checking Iran are under threat or falling.

This is mostly fair. To some degree it makes Israel look selfish (why should our neighbors have freedom if we're at risk?) but nothing too egregious. (The reporter Steven Erlanger was the Jerusalem Bureau Chief preceeding Ethan Bronner. Erlanger was awful and Bronner, despite his flaws, is a step up.)

I can't hold Erlanger responsible for not knowing about yesterday's Grad attack on Be'er Sheva because it appears that this story went up beforehand.

However the problem of the above paragraph, is that except for the reference to Iran (which is mitigated by the reference to the Muslim Brotherhood representing a "minority), there's nothing concrete about Israeli fears. But yesterday's Grad attack demonstrated that those fears are concrete, not abstractions:

After Mubarak, Israel Is Unsettled Over Hamas

Senior Hamas military commander Ayman Nofal, who escaped from confinement in Egypt during a mass prison break, returned to Gaza where he told an interviewer: “We’re preparing for the next battle.” Two Israeli officials familiar with intelligence reports said this week that Hamas, emboldened by Mubarak’s resignation and its own successful crackdown on popular discontent at home, had stepped up the smuggling of militants and weapons through Egypt to be stockpiled in Gaza for use against Israel. “It’s not just terrorists coming in. It’s dangerous equipment – Grad-type missiles, anti-aircraft missiles,” a senior Israeli official said. (emphasis mine)

Getting back to Erlanger:

Arab analysts counter that new Arab realities and democracies should be welcomed by Israel, because the new Arab generation shares many of the same values as Israel and the West. They argue that there is no support among Egypt’s leaders for the abrogation of the 1979 peace treaty, though it is unpopular with the public, and that the Egyptian Army will not disrupt foreign policy.

“There is no regime that is going to be against or hostile toward Israel in the near term,” said Mohamed Darif, a political scientist at Morocco’s King Hassan II University. “There has been an evolution in the Arab world, among political elites and in civil society. Israel is a fact.”

Is there any support for Darif's assertion? I'm skeptical and I suspect a brief trip to MEMRI and I'd find something vastly different from an "evolution."

But new governments are more likely to increase their support for the Palestinian cause, with Egypt already reopening the crossing with Hamas-run Gaza. That new attitude could pressure Israel to do more to find a settlement, some analysts argue. Most others believe that Israel will instead resist, arguing that it cannot make concessions because it is now encircled by more hostile neighbors.

If Fatah lost out to Hamas in Gaza and Lebanon is now under the thrall of Hezbollah after Israel made concrete concessions for peace, why would the Islamization of Egypt "presssure Israel to do more?" Furthermore, it's not like Israel hasn't, in the past, done more to achieve a settlement. But no matter what Israel does or offers, it is never matched or accepted by the Palestinians. And while I can't argue with the last paragraph, again "it is now encircled" downplays Israeli fears. Hamas and Hezbollah aren't merely hostile, they are belligerent too and have attacked Israel.

Then Erlanger sites three "experts" all of whom assert in different ways that Israeli fears overblown.

1) The new Egypt will be in agreement with Arab concerns.
2) It is up to Israel to solve the Israeli-Palestinians conflict.
3) The influence of the Muslim brotherhood is overstated.

Israelis have also noted the emergence in Tahrir Square last week of Yusuf al-Qaradawi, a leading Egyptian Islamic theologian who had been exiled by Mr. Mubarak, and the willingness of the Egyptian Army to let some Iranian warships through the Suez Canal.

Yes, Israelis have noted Qaradawi's emergence, but the media has been downplaying it. And he's an Islamic theologian who supports terror attacks against innocents. Think that's relevant at all? And the Iranian ships went through the canal as a show of influence. Iran's invluence will strengthen Hamas and Hezbollah and put Israeli civilians further at risk. Yes, Israelis "noted" these things.

The end of the article, though, seems to go back about 4 years when Turkey was indeed an American and Israeli ally.

Many analysts see a growing role for Turkey, a Muslim democracy with a strong army and ties to the United States, Israel and the West. “Turkey will be a great beneficiary of Arab democratization, as more open, dynamic Arab societies learn from Turkey’s great leap forward” and its “soft and tantalizing brand of Islamo-secularism,” Mr. Khouri wrote.

The Turkish model would be a good outcome for Israel, many Israelis agree. But as they also noted, relations with Turkey have been deeply strained by its new closeness to Muslim neighbors like Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas.

"good outcome?" Yikes. In recent years under the AKP, Turkey has conciously been moving away from the United States and gravitating towards Iran. These are mutually exclusive states. To enjoy "new closeness" (or more precisely an alliance) with Iran, is to reject an alliance with the United States and Israel. These last two paragraphs display incredible ignorance.

Note the way Erlanger sprinkles the article with "many" and "most." These terms are vague enough to denote almost anything. It's a sign that he was cherry picking, finding "expert" opinions that support his views rather than doing any serious analysis.

And, of course, Israeli fears are abstract not concrete.

Technorati Tag: Middle East.