Barry Rubin: Polls Prove Strength, Not Weakness, of Islamists in Egypt

Polls Prove Strength, Not Weakness, of Islamists in Egypt

by Barry Rubin

Several recent polls purport to show the Muslim Brotherhood is unpopular in Egypt. An article in the Atlantic is particularly laughable, claiming the Brotherhood is less popular than Richard Nixon when he resigned!

The most important single point is this: the Brotherhood isn’t at an “unpopular” 17 percent (among a presumed 100 percent) but a 17 percent base of support among the 50 percent of those who chose a party that might win seats (34 out of 100 percent). In other words, one in every three Egyptians who have decided and will have a real role in the outcome are ready to cast their ballots for the Brotherhood. It is the largest single party. And it has advantages that make it likely to get more than 33 percent of the seats.

That isn’t bad in an election with more than 20 parties.

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Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. His latest books are The Israel-Arab Reader (seventh edition), The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East (Wiley), and The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan). His latest book is Israel: An Introduction, to be published by Yale University Press in January 2012. You can read more of Barry Rubin's posts at Rubin Reports, and now on his new blog, Rubin Reports, on Pajamas Media
Technorati Tag: Egypt and Arab Spring and Muslim Brotherhood.