Prospects For Israel And Palestinian State Heading In Opposite Directions

That is the upshot in a post by Emanuele Ottolenghi.

On the one hand, Palestinian Arabs seem further than ever from reaching their apparent goal of creating a second Palestinian state:

The Palestinians have never been so far from a state as today — all rhetoric and renewed American engagement notwithstanding. They have lost their charismatic leader and failed to replace him with someone who could unify the tribal, clannish, and fragmented patchwork of Palestinian constituencies. They lost any pretense of unity between the West Bank and Gaza — now split between two competing governments. They also lost their centrality in Arab politics, and most importantly they lost the ability — which the late Yasser Arafat had — to blackmail Arab leaders. Their society is torn between a Palestinian nationalist agenda that cannot reconcile itself with the reality of Israel and an Islamist agenda that cannot reconcile itself with the reality of Israel (and with a uniquely Palestinian nationalist agenda). Their struggle has been overtaken by Iran and has turned off erstwhile friends and allies. Their economy is one of subsistence — their people have been turned into paupers and parasites, while their leaders either get rich or divert funds to weapons smuggling. They may not be terminally ill as a people, true, but the picture of the Palestinian polity is not exactly one of health, for sure.

On the other hand, Israel's political health seems healtier:

Compare Israel, 2009 with Israel, 1967:

• A much freer and feistier press.

• A much more diverse society.

• Thousands of NGO’s have sprung out to lobby the political elites, to pressure them, and to expose their flaws and shortcomings.

• Israel’s judiciary is as pugnacious as anyone concerned about democracy, human rights, and rule of law could dream — even more so, sometimes.

• Israel’s military remains subordinate to civilian authority — no authoritarian temptation despite the occupation and ongoing conflict.

Of course, not everyone agrees with Ottolenghi's prognosis--take journalist Aaron Klein for example. He has come out with a new book: The Late Great State of Israel: How Enemies Within and Without Threaten the Jewish Nation's Survival
, about how Israel is her own worst enemy--even without Hamas and Hizbollah.

Obama's pressure on Netanyahu is only the tip of the iceberg.

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air is apparently working on getting an interview with Klein this week.

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