Barry Rubin: Israel is in Good Shape Because So Many Others Decided Not to Be

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted here with permission:

Israel is in Good Shape
Because So Many Others Decided Not to Be

By Barry Rubin

The more I think about Israel’s security situation at this moment, the better it looks. Obviously, this is counter-intuitive given the media bias, academic distortions, and campaigns for sanctions of various kinds. And, of course, Israel starts from a basis of facing far more security challenges than any other modern state. Still, by Israeli standards the outlook is good.

It’ll take a while to list all of the factors so let’s get started while the inkwell is still full.

Barry Rubin: The Wild Card in Arab “Democratic” Politics: Extra-Parliamentary Violence

The Wild Card in Arab “Democratic” Politics: Extra-Parliamentary Violence

by Barry Rubin

Consider just a small part of what’s gone on in Tunisia, a relatively moderate country where the radical Islamists “only” got 40 percent of the vote and were forced to lead the country from within a coalition with moderate, secular parties.

Hundreds of Salafis rioted in several cities and set fire to police stations as well as the offices of non-Islamist parties and secular-led trade unions. A truck carrying alcoholic drinks was set ablaze, too, as were shops selling electronic goods, providing access to “immoral” entertainment. Salafis using clubs and stones attacked police who fired in the air to escape. Shooting at the demonstrators would recall memories of the old regime and lead to even worse rioting. An art gallery whose exhibition was labelled immoral was hit with firebombs, almost killing staff members. Eighty-six rioters were arrested; at least one man died.

Missing Peace: In Tunis Islamists Vow to Destroy Israel, While Egyptians Ban Jews From Visiting Tomb of Rabbi

The following from Missing Peace is reposted with permission:

In Tunis Islamists vow to destroy Israel, while Egyptians ban Jews from visiting tomb of Rabbi

Hamas PM Haniyeh in Tunis

Jerusalem, January 10, 2012

On Monday Ishmael Haniyeh visited Tunisia, during his first official Middle East tour as the prime minister of Hamas in Gaza.

During that tour he tried to generate support for his plan to launch a ‘holy war to liberate Jerusalem’.

Difficult times


When he addressed a cheering crowd in Tunis, he predicted ‘difficult times ahead for Israel’.
He also said the following:

The Arab Uprisings' Impact: Who Gains As US Influence Declines

The following from Middle East Forum is reposted with permission

The Arab Uprisings' Impact
Israeli Defense

by Efraim Inbar
Middle East Quarterly
Winter 2012, pp. 39-46 (view PDF)

http://www.meforum.org/3143/arab-uprisings-impact

Although the wave of mass protests spreading through the Arabic-speaking countries may have begun to recede, it has left a wide-ranging impact on the region. Three authoritarian regimes have collapsed, and the rest are experiencing varying degrees of duress.

This emerging political and strategic landscape has major implications for Israeli national security. Regional turmoil has effectively ruled out a major advance in Arab-Israeli diplomacy, enabled Ankara and Tehran to expand their influence, continued the decline of U.S. influence, and emboldened extremists.

Video: Latma--The Real Arab Spring And Discusses Israel's New Slander Law

This week's Latma is here--with a new song, about the real Arab Spring.
Enjoy:

Barry Rubin: What Do Totalitarians Do When They Gain Power Democratically?

What Do Totalitarians Do When They Gain Power Democratically?

By Barry Rubin

In the last scene of the film “The Candidate,” about a U.S. Senate election, the victorious candidate expresses American cynicism about politics by asking, “What do we do now?” The idea is that politicians just want to get into power but have no idea of how to deal with problems or even a coherent worldview. Soon deadlock will set in and nothing is really going to change. It is the sarcasm fit for an open, non-ideological system where individual ambition prevails. But as long as there’s always another election, we know that things will be all right and life will be tolerable.

Turkey And The Arab Spring

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                             November 2011

Turkey and the Arab Spring: A Strategic Briefing

MEDIA CONTACT: Michael Weiss

As the New York Times revealed recently, Turkey -- once a close ally of the Syrian regime -- is hosting an armed opposition group against President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey is sheltering the Free Syrian Army, and allegedly allowing them to run operations and wage attacks on Syria from a refugee camp on Turkey's border. The Henry Jackson Society has published a strategic briefing, "Turkey and the Arab Spring," analysing the country's foreign policy in the light of the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. In the last decade, Turkey's pragmatic "zero-problems" foreign policy resulted in better relations and trade with its Middle Eastern neighbours. However, with the upheavals of the Arab Spring, Turkey's relations with Israel at an all-time low, the country's belated public support for the revolution in Syria and an escalation of the Cyprus-European Union (EU) issue, it is questionable whether this "zero problems" policy is still relevant or workable.   The executive summary states: the lack of consistency in Turkey's responses to the revolutions and regarding the on-going statelessness of the Kurds and the Palestinians belies Prime Minister Erdoğan's commitment to a moral foreign policy. Amid concerns that Turkey is abandoning its long-standing commitment to the West, Turkey's current relations with Israel, Egypt, Syria and the EU demonstrate both far-reaching regional and international ambitions - independent of the US.

Barry Rubin: A Saudi Writer Explains the “Muslim Brotherhood Spring”

A Saudi Writer Explains the “Muslim Brotherhood Spring”

By Barry Rubin

It’s always fascinating to read the work of genuine Arab moderates (or that of non-Arab Muslims) to see how much it differs from the Western-celebrated false moderates and radicals so often prominently featured in the mass media and academia. Indeed, people like the following writer can never be found as heroes of the official West because they tell the inconvenient truths about the Middle East.

Consider a young Saudi named Mshari al-Zaydi. He is the opinion page editor of Al-Sharq al-Awsat, the best Arabic newspaper, where this article first appeared. It was then reprinted on the website of al-Arabiyya, the UAE alternative to the radical Qatari al-Jazira. Funny, how the anti-Western al-Jazira is lionized by the West while al-Arabiyya is ignored.

Giyus: Arab Spring Pushing Iran Closer to Nuclear Weapons

The following from Giyus is reposted with permission:

Arab Spring Pushing Iran Closer to Nuclear Weapons

As the world is playing catch with the events in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and other Arab Spring focal points, Iran is very busy.

Trying to keep people oppressed in light of Arab Spring revolutions surely keeps the regime in Iran occupied. But more than that, viewing once strongman like Mubarak and Gadaffi defeated, jailed humiliated and assassinated is probably the strongest driver to Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions.

It's safe to assume that if Gadaffi possessed nuclear weapons, NATO would not be so keen on interfering in internal Libyan riots. NATO has armed, trained and financed the rebels operations. Without Nato's help, the Libyan rebels would not be able to topple Gadaffi. Just look at Syria. Without external intervention, Assad is able to hold on and keep protesters at bay. Iran is closely watching the situation and Ahmadinejad recently claimed that NATO intervention was effective in exacerbating the conflict.

Barry Rubin: Out of Tune in Tunisia: What’s Really Going on There and Throughout the Arab World

Out of Tune in Tunisia: What’s Really Going on There and Throughout the Arab World

By Barry Rubin

Let’s step back, keep an open mind, avoid stereotypes and preconceptions, and ask: What is the current political situation in Tunisia? Simple. The Islamists aren’t ready for the concern. They are just tuning up. Still, they’ve handed out programs so we should know what’s going to be played at the concert.

First and foremost, let’s remember that Tunisia is not going to become a radical Islamist state within the next year. The whole revolution in the Islamist revolution is the understanding—learned largely from Turkey—that the movement can operate by stealth, one step at a time, winning elections, taking over institutions, and only emerging fully at the end of that process.

This does not prove they are moderate; it proves that they are smart. And you know what that proves about those gullible enough to be taken in by the trickery.

Remember what happened with Communism. Karl Marx started by proclaiming that the Communists disdained to conceal their aims and the next thing you know they are all wearing costumes labeled “agrarian reformers,” “progressives,” and moderates.

Barry Rubin: Tunisia: The “Moderate” Islamists Make a Radical Revolution

Tunisia: The “Moderate” Islamists Make a Radical Revolution

By Barry Rubin

After the torch-light red on sweaty faces
After the frosty silence in the gardens
The shouting and the crying
Prison and place and reverberation
Of thunder of spring over distant mountains
He who was living is now dead
We who were living are now dying
With a little patience

–T. S. Eliot, “The Wasteland”


Let’s be 100 percent clear here: In theory there might be such a thing as a moderate who wants more Islamic influence in political life—I can think of some very tiny groups that might be able to claim that distinction—but the party that won the Tunisian election is definitely not in that category and the same applies to the significant Islamist forces in Libya and Egypt, too.