Arlene Kushner: Israel Obviously Did Not Get The Clear Win It Wanted -- Now We Wait

From Arlene Kushner
August 27, 2014

A Second Look

I’m sure that - after today’s assessment - I will take a third and a fourth and fifth look at the ceasefire declared last night in Gaza.  In many ways this is an evolving situation,  more complex than it might have seemed at first blush.

I begin by noting that impressions do matter – especially where deterrence is concerned.  If Hamas appears to be the victor, that impression reverberates internationally in a way that is detrimental to our concerns.  And in any event the sight of celebrating Palestinian Arabs in Gaza, which we have been shown in news video clips over the past several hours, is extraordinarily galling.

Credit: Reuters

However, there are a couple of points that must be made with regard to this “victory” celebration.

Arlene Kushner on the Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Are We Looking At A Resumption of Hostilities During Rosh HaShanah and Yom Kippur?

From Arlene Kushner:

August 26, 2014

Worse and Worser

The truth: There is no entirely satisfactory resolution to our war with Hamas (the war that is not called a war).

Aside, of course, from that “ultimate” resolution in which we would fully retake Gaza and banish all terrorists and jihadis - thereby creating a peaceful situation in Gaza and a situation of deterrence with regard to terrorists in other locales – and then rebuild Gush Katif, helping the former residents to return.

Certainly I am among those who dream of such a thing.   And I do believe in the importance of dreams.  I know that there would be no Israel without dreams and the courage to act upon them.

But I also know that this vision is not about to be realized. There are a variety of factors that are arrayed against us and render this scenario severely problematic. I’ve covered them before:

Mideast Media Sampler 08/26/2011

From DG:

1) The One Sided Ceasefire

On Wednesday, the Washington Post's Joel Greenberg reported:

A tenuous cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip was punctured Wednesday by a deadly Israeli airstrike that triggered rocket and mortar fire at Israel.

The airstrike killed one, Ismail Asmar, a leader of Islamic Jihad.

What ceasefire did Israel puncture?

Arlene Kushner: What Ceasefire?

From Arlene Kushner:

August 26, 2011

"What Ceasefire?"

Because of time restraints, this will be short.  But I wanted to do at least a basic update on the situation here, with more hopefully to follow before long.

After a three day period of relative quite, matters have heated up again.  In the past 48 hours, there have been salvos of mortars and rockets coming from Gaza and aimed at Israel's south.  We're talking about dozens of rockets, including Kassams and Grad Katyushas -- with some 20 shot during the night last night.   

Beersheva, Ashkelon, Sderot, Ofakim, Netivot and other towns in the region have been targeted.  One baby was slightly injured and one house suffered serious damage.

The Iron Dome defense system has taken out some of the rockets, but the terrorists launching them have attempted to overwhelm the system by sending a large number at the same time.  There are two batteries of the Iron Dome currently in place and a third is scheduled for installation.

The Incredible Shrinking Ceasefire

When the ceasefire was first announced, it had a number of components. Abbas claimed that:

• All Palestinian terrorist factions agreed to the ceasefire
• Tunnel-digging would stop
• Suicide bombing would stop
• Firing of Kassam rockets would stop
• Manufacture of rockets would stop

After Israel kept her side of the bargain, it did not take long for the ceasefire to unravel:

All IDF forces were withdrawn from Gaza in the course of the night - and shortly afterwards, two terrorist groups announced they were not parties to the ceasefire agreement. Islamic Jihad and the Abu Rish Brigades of Fatah declared this morning that they would continue firing rockets at Israeli citizens. [emphasis added]

And that was only the beginning:

In the meanwhile, three rockets hit the besieged city of Sderot and environs around 8 AM, and another Kassam was fired at the Eshkol region of the Negev.

...Shortly before 10 AM, a fifth rocket slammed into the town, but causing no physical damage.

In an interview with IMRA, a Hamas spokesman made clear that besides the manufacture of weapons, smuggling weapons in the tunnels is not covered by the ceasefire

IMRA has an article quoting from 2 Olmert speeches indicating that there is no expectation for a halt in weapon production--contrary to the original official Governement indication. By the same token, Olmert clearly states that the smuggling of weapons through tunnels would stop--contrary to what the Hamas spokesman quoted above claimed.

What do you expect when you make a deal with terrorists?

For that matter, why would you go to the trouble to negotiate a ceasefire with the same leader for whom the US is constantly demanding you make concessions because his weak position needs to be strengthened?

Then there is Shimon Peres:

"It is a positive development, but not the final move," he told Israel Radio this morning. "Let us not exaggerate its importance, but it should not be derided... It is an achievement for Israel, for Ehud Olmert and for his government."

Even while hedging, Peres does not grasp how hollow an achievement this is, even as it falls apart the day after the ceasefire goes into effect.

The problem again is that Israel follows the West's lead in the absurd notion that Palestinian terrorists somehow have some kind of legitimacy and not only can but must be negotiated with and trusted. As long as Israel buys into this, concessions will expected and demanded.

It is up to Israel to say 'no' to such expectations--consistently and repeatedly.
And first step is to elect real leaders.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Olmert and Peres and Ceasefire.