Barry Rubin: Syria is the Spanish Civil War of our Time

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted with permission:

Syria is the Spanish Civil War of our Time

By Barry Rubin

"We protest with all our power against the sham, the hypocritical sham, that [the non-intervention policy] now appears to be."
--Philip Noel-Baker, House of Commons, October 29, 1936.

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"The outcome of the Spanish war was settled in London, Paris, Rome, Berlin--at any rate not in Spain….The war was actually won for Franco by the Germans and Italians."
-- George Orwell, "Looking Back at the Spanish Civil War."

Spain 1936. An army revolt against the democratically elected government sets off a civil war. On one side are the Fascists, led by General Francisco Franco. On the other side is a coalition of democrats both social democratic and liberal; communal nationalists; anarchists, Communists, and independent Marxists. The Western democracies declare an embargo: no arms to be sold to the Loyalist side. But Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy help the Rebels, while Stalin’s USSR helps the Communists, increasing their power within the Loyalist coalition. In the end, the Fascists win and rule Spain for decades.

Syria 2012. The people revolt against the dictatorship setting off a civil war. On one side is the anti-American repressive Syrian regime that has been a champion of revolutionary Islamism; its ally, Iran; and Hizballah. On the other side is a coalition of democrats, communal nationalists, and Islamists. The Western democracies declare an embargo: no arms to be sold to the rebels. But Shia Islamist Iran and Russia help the regime, while Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood help the Islamists, increasing their power within the rebel coalition. In the end, either the regime wins or the Islamist component among the rebels is more likely to win.

This is why UN Ambassador Susan Rice is speaking nonsense when she says:

Barry Rubin: Syria: No Longer Revolution, It is A Civil War, A Guide to the Battle

The following by Barry Rubin is reposted here with permission.

Syria: No Longer Revolution, It is A Civil War, A Guide to the Battle

By Barry Rubin

The only honest answer to the question of what will happen in Syria is: No one knows. After an eight-month-long battle in which more than 3500 people have been killed, there’s no telling who will be ruling Syria when the dust settles, or even when the dust will settle. A regime victory is quite possible—perhaps most likely—and its overthrow might--but not necessarily--bring an Islamist regime.

But what do we know about Syria? Here’s a guide.