Will Kerry's Plan Create A Demographic Time Bomb That Will Threaten Israel?

The following by Steven J. Rosen is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

Palestine's Peace Bomb

by Steven J. Rosen
Foreign Policy
January 31, 2014

http://www.meforum.org/3735/palestine-peace-bomb

Steven J. Rosen

One of the key arguments of Israel's "peace camp" is that, without a two-state solution, the state faces a "demographic time-bomb." The contention is that perpetuating Israeli control over the growing Arab population of the West Bank will dilute Israel's Jewish majority, until it is a de facto bi-national state. Therefore, proponents of this line of thinking argue, Secretary of State John Kerry's push for a two-state solution is imperative if Israel hopes to remain both Jewish and democratic.

Some Israeli policymakers have bought into the threat of a ticking demographic time bomb. In 2007, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned the Knesset of "a demographic battle" if a Palestinian state is not created. Similarly, the current government's chief peace negotiator, Tzipi Livni, argued that "time works to our disadvantage" because of "demographic numbers...[and] a higher Palestinian birth rate that could mean the end of a Jewish majority."

But Israelis on the right see a different demographic time bomb -- one that Kerry's plan will produce, rather than prevent. By opening the West Bank to a flood of refugees from the neighboring Arab countries, Kerry's plan could throw the Palestinian territories into chaos and sow the seeds for the rise of further extremism and terrorism on Israel's borders.

Towards A Jewish Majority in the State of Israel -- and the Land of Israel

The following by Yakov Faitelson is reposted here with permission of the Middle East Forum:

A Jewish Majority in the Land of Israel
The Resilient Jewish State

by Yakov Faitelson
Middle East Quarterly
Fall 2013, pp. 15-27 (view PDF)

Growth trends and population forecasts have played a significant role in the political landscape of the Middle East, especially over the thorny question of Israel and the disputed territories. The notion that the Jewish majority of Israel is in danger of being swamped by Arab fertility has repeatedly been used as a political and psychological weapon to extract territorial concessions from the Israeli government. In September 2010, U.S. president Barack Obama referred to the so-called "hard realities of demography" that threaten the survival of the Jewish state.[1]

Such a conclusion is wrong. Analysis of long-term demographic developments leads to quite the opposite conclusion: In the long run, a strong Jewish majority, not only in the state of Israel—as this author projected almost twenty-five years ago[2] and the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics recently reaffirmed[3]—but also in the Land of Israel[4] is quite possible.

Arlene Kushner: Is Netanyahu Buying into The Arab Demographics Claim?

From Arlene Kushner
May 2, 2013

The Flip Side

Yesterday I wrote about certain things that PM Netanyahu said at the National Public Diplomacy Forum of the Foreign Ministry.  Today I want to look at some other things he said.

What I cited yesterday was what he himself emphasized, and what I felt was most important to share. But I would be remiss if I didn't also allude to this.

What he said was: 

"I want to solve the conflict with the Palestinians because I don't want a binational state."

Read: Netanyahu wants deal to prevent 'binational state'

Falling Muslim Birthrates May Delay That Muslim Conquest Of The West

In most of the Islamic world it’s amazing, the decline in fertility that has happened.
Director of the UN Population Division Hania Zlotnik, quoted by Ettinger

Yoram Ettinger, who often writes about the decline in Palestinian fertility and the underestimated growth in the fertility of Israelis, writes that there is a actually a decline in fertility across the Muslim world:

Not Your Father's Demographics: Since 2001: Jewish Births In Israel Up, Muslim Births Down

One of the reasons given for why Israel must forge ahead with peace talks towards a 2 state solution has been that otherwise with the greater Muslim birthrate, Israel will cease to be a Jewish state.

Not so fast.

"No Demographic Time Bomb; It's Demographic Scarecrow Bomb"

Yoram Ettinger, a member of the American-Israel Demographic Research Group (AIDRG), writes about the demographic situation--which the Obama administration has exploited as a reason for Israeli concessions.

In the article below, Ettinger clarifies the actual demographics.

No Demographic Time Bomb; It's Demographic Scarecrow Bomb (Word document)
Ambassador (ret.) Yoram Ettinger

Anyone suggesting that Jews are doomed to become a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean is either dramatically mistaken or outrageously misleading.

In contrast with conventional “wisdom,” there is a Jewish majority of 67% in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and Judea & Samaria and a 60% majority west of the Jordan River (including Gaza), compared with a 33% and a 8% Jewish minority in 1947 and in 1900 respectively.

Israeli Arab Population Growth Falls Back To Earth

In Defusing the demographic scare, Paul Morland writes that the tremendous growth of the Israeli Arab population was to be expected--as is its current decrease:

In the early days of the state, the Arab minority underwent a "demographic transition," something that often occurs when traditional societies confront modernity. Health care and living standards improved rapidly, life expectancy rose and infant mortality fell, but, initially, family size remained large. As a result, Israel's Arab population expanded fast, and maintained or even increased its proportion of the population, despite the massive Jewish immigration to the state. In the 1960s, Israeli Muslim women were still having on average nine children.

However, after the first stage of demographic transition - a falling death rate, a persistently high birthrate and thus rapid population growth - invariably comes a second stage, in which birthrates fall. This is now happening within Israeli Arab society, and has been for some time. The average Israeli Arab woman is now having fewer than half the children she had in the 1960s, while the Jewish birthrate has recently stabilized and even risen. This is seen in the number of children actually born each year. In 2001, there were around 95,000 Jewish births in Israel and 41,000 Arab births. Just seven years later, in 2008, Jewish births had risen to over 117,000, but Arab births had declined to less than 40,000. In a period that constitutes barely a quarter of a generation, Arab births had fallen from around 30 percent of the total to around 25 percent. This has been a steady trend and, should it continue, it will only be a very short time before Jewish and Arab births each year are broadly proportionate to the overall balance of Jews and Arabs in the population as whole - that is, 4:1, or 80 percent and 20 percent, respectively. [emphasis added]

In fact, while the Arab birth rate in Gaza and the West Bank is not so reliable--the current Israeli birth rate increases that in a number of Muslim countries:

...although the relatively high Jewish birthrate in Israel bucks the trend for developed societies, the decline in the Arab birthrate within Israel accords with recent trends in the Islamic world. Today Israeli women as a whole have more children (2.77) than women in Iran (1.71), Bahrain (2.53), Algeria (1.82), Morocco (2.57), Indonesia (2.34) or Turkey (1.87). Latest figures suggest that Israeli women now have more children than women in Egypt (2.72), Jordan (2.47) or Lebanon (1.87). As recently as 2003, Syrian women had a fertility rate 50 percent higher than that of Israeli women. By 2008, it was only 16 percent higher.

But even if Morland is correct, Israel is not out of the woods yet. In his article, Seven Existential Threats, Michael Oren writes that the Arab demographics remain one of those threats:

Even if the minimalist interpretation [that the Arab Israeli population is declining] is largely correct, it cannot alter a situation in which Israeli Arabs currently constitute one-fifth of the country’s population—one-quarter of the population under age 19--and in which the West Bank now contains at least 2 million Arabs.

Israel, the Jewish State, is predicated on a decisive and stable Jewish majority of at least 70 percent. Any lower than that and Israel will have to decide between being a Jewish state and a democratic state. If it chooses democracy, then Israel as a Jewish state will cease to exist. If it remains officially Jewish, then the state will face an unprecedented level of international isolation, including sanctions, that might prove fatal.

Be that as it may, Morland concludes that the focus on the numbers is misplaced. He writes that the focus should not be on the size of the Israeli Arab minority,

but rather what kind of minority it will be. Will it be an integrated part of society, upwardly mobile, both socially and economically, enjoying and contributing to the fruits of Israeli society, a potential bridge to the region and an advertisement for Israel's inclusiveness and tolerance? Or will it become marginalized, alienated and increasingly hostile? That depends very much on the Jewish majority's attitudes and the government's policies. It also depends on a pragmatic and realistic Arab leadership looking out for the interests of its constituency and basing its strategy on a sober understanding of its own demographic prospects.

Bottom line, for all of Netanyahu's talk about implementing his proposal for a triple-track approach that includes addressing the economic issues of the Palestinian Arabs, he will need to address the economic, as well as the political, concerns of the Israeli Arabs as well.

Technorati Tag: Israel Demographics.

The West's Proxy War Against Israel Is Worse Than Iran's

Gunnar Heinsohn, of the Raphael Lemkin Institute dedicated to comparative genocide research has written an intriguing article for the Wall Street Journal--Ending the West's Proxy War Against Israel: Stop funding a Palestinian youth bulge, and the fighting will stop too.

He writes that the violence and bloodshed between Hamas and Fatah is typical of countries where at least 30% of the male population is age 15 to 29:

In such "youth bulge" countries, young men tend to eliminate each other or get killed in aggressive wars until a balance is reached between their ambitions and the number of acceptable positions available in their society. In Arab nations
such as Lebanon (150,000 dead in the civil war between 1975 and 1990) or Algeria (200,000 dead in the Islamists' war against their own people between 1999 and 2006), the slaughter abated only when the fertility rates in these countries fell from seven children per woman to fewer than two. The warring stopped because no more warriors were being born.

...In Gaza, however, there has been no demographic disarmament. The average woman still bears six babies. For every 1,000 men aged 40-44, there are 4,300 boys aged 0-4 years. In the U.S. the latter figure is 1,000, and in the U.K. it's only 670.

There are other numbers of interest that Heinsohn brings to our attention:

In the six decades since Israel's founding, "only" some 62,000 people (40,000 Arabs, 22,000 Jews) have been killed in all the Israeli-Arab wars and Palestinian terror attacks. During that same time, some 11 million Muslims have been killed in wars and terror attacks -- mostly at the hands of other Muslims.

But the key point that Heinsohn makes is that the perpetual violence of the Palestinian Arabs is made that much easier by UNRWA and those that support it:

UNRWA is benevolently funded by the U.S. (31%) and the European Union
(nearly 50%) -- only 7% of the funds come from Muslim sources. Thanks to the West's largesse, nearly the entire population of Gaza lives in a kind of lowly but regularly paid dependence. One result of this unlimited welfare is an endless population boom. Between 1950 and 2008, Gaza's population has grown from 240,000 to 1.5 million. The West basically created a new Near Eastern people in Gaza that at current trends will reach three million in 2040. Within that period, Gazans may alter the justifications and directions of their aggression but are unlikely to stop the aggression itself.

The Hamas-Fatah truce of June 2007 allowed the Islamists again to direct all their energy on attacking Israel. The West pays for food, schools, medicine and housing, while Muslim nations help out with the military hardware. Unrestrained by such necessities as having to earn a living, the young have plenty of time on their hands for digging tunnels, smuggling, assembling missiles and firing 4,500 of them at Israel since 2006. While this gruesome activity has slowed the Palestinian internecine slaughter, it forced some 250,000 Israelis into bomb shelters.

In other words, the West itself has created their own proxies of sorts in Gaza, in a way that is more direct and more deadly than Iran:

As long as we continue to subsidize Gaza's extreme demographic armament,
young Palestinians will likely continue killing their brothers or neighbors. And yet, despite claiming that it wants to bring peace to the region, the West continues to make the population explosion in Gaza worse every year. By generously supporting UNRWA's budget, the West assists a rate of population increase that is 10 times higher than in their own countries. Much is being said about Iran waging a proxy war against Israel by supporting Hezbollah and Hamas. One may argue that by fueling Gaza's untenable population explosion,
the West unintentionally finances a war by proxy against the Jews of Israel.

Heinsohn offers a solution to this problem, but it is more problematic that he seems to suggest. The answer he gives goes way beyond reducing aid and making Gazans more responsible for themselves:

If the West prefers calm around Gaza even before 2025, it may consider offering immigration to those young Palestinians only born because of the West's well-meant but cruelly misguided aid. In the decades to come, North America and Europe will have to take in tens of millions of immigrants anyway to slow the aging of their populations. If, say, 200,000 of them are taken from the 360,000 boys coming of age in Gaza in the next 15 years, that would be a negligible move for the big democracies but a quantum leap for peace in the Near East.

Read the whole thing.

It is noteworthy that Senator John Kyl of Arizona has actually reacted to this possibility in a proposed amendment to the Omnibus Bill:

Mr. KYL submitted an amendment intended to be proposed by him to the bill H.R. 1105, making omnibus appropriations for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2009, and for other purposes; which was ordered to lie on the table; as follows: On page 942, between lines 14 and 15, insert the following: PROHIBITION ON USE OF FUNDS FOR RESETTLEMENT INTO UNITED STATES OF PALESTINIANS FROM GAZA Sec. 7093. None of the funds appropriated or otherwise made available by this Act may be made available to resettle Palestinians from Gaza into the United States.

One reason for Senator Kyl's amendment may be simply the potential importing of Palestinian terrorists. Another may be transporting the Hamas vs Fatah to the US. Regular immigration is one thing, but importing Gazans en masse could lead to a problem:



The issue though, of Gaza immigration, is real. On February 4th, the following was entered into the Federal Register:

Presidential Determination No. 2009-15 of January 27, 2009

Unexpected Urgent Refugee and Migration Needs Related To Gaza

Memorandum for the Secretary of State

By the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including section 2(c)(1) of the Migration and Refugee Assistance Act of 1962 (the ``Act''), as amended (22 U.S.C. 2601), I hereby determine, pursuant to section 2(c)(1) of the Act, that it is important to the national interest to furnish assistance under the Act in an amount not to exceed $20.3 million from the United States Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance Fund for the purpose of meeting unexpected and urgent refugee and migration needs, including by contributions to international, governmental, and nongovernmental organizations and payment of administrative expenses of Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration of the Department of State, related to humanitarian needs of Palestinian refugees and conflict victims in Gaza.

Ted Belman suggests, more reasonably, that perhaps Obama is "attempting to break the UNRWA’s strangle hold on resettlement of refugees." His suggestion makes sense in light of Congress's demand for better oversight on UNRWA:

Over 40 members of Congress now have signed onto a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton calling for an independent audit of UNRWA. The letter was drafted by Reps. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., and Steve Rothman, D-N.J.

...Kirk is also a co-sponsor of legislation introduced last week by Rothman calling for greater transparency at UNRWA, insisting that the agency put its textbooks on the Internet and screen its payroll against terrorist databases of members of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian-based organizations. UNRWA admitted to FOXNews.com that it currently only screens its employees against a watchlist of roughly 500 Taliban and Al Qaeda operatives, most of whom live in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The underlying issue, not surprisingly, is UNRWA--whether the West will recognize the problem UNRWA represents and what the West is willing to do about it.

Footnote: Keep in mind how Heinsohn's numbers for Gaza compare with elsewhere. The Jerusalem Post has reported on a downward trend in the Arab World:

The Westernization of Arab fertility rate (3.5 births per woman in pre-1967 Israel and four in Judea and Samaria) is apparent throughout most of the Arab and Muslim world. For instance, the 2008 map of the UN Population Division documents an average fertility rate of two-four births, compared with over four births 30 years ago. Even Yemen, the flagship of robust Arab demography, is adopting family planning. This month it approved a new law setting the minimum age for marriage at 17 for boys and girls, prohibiting marriage without the consent of the woman and benefiting divorced women.

However, though the article mentions the West Bank, there is no mention of Gaza.
According to the CIA World Factbook, the total fertility rate is approximately 5.19 children born/woman, but again--why is Gaza more than elsewhere, including The West Bank?

Crossposted on Soccer Dad

Technorati Tag: Israel and Gaza and Hamas.

Israelis Getting Younger While Palestinian Arabs Getting Older

One of the key arguments used in defense for land-for-peace in general and the formation of a second Palestinian state in particular has been the fear that the time and demographics were on the side of the Palestinian Arabs. According to the argument, the Palestinian Arab birth rate was higher than the Jewish birth rate and inevitably--if the Palestinian Arabs were not given a land of their own--Israel would some day become an Arab state. There have been clear indications that those arguments are based on false data--and now the numbers from the Central Bureau of Statistics is backing this up as well:

The bubble of demographic fatalism is bursting, according to the most recent data, published by the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data should be leveraged by the new government to formulate a demographic policy aimed at increasing the current 67 percent Jewish majority west of the Jordan River (without Gaza). The road map [that's road map, not Road Map, DA] would uproot demographic fatalism and advance demographic optimism, thus energizing aliya, the economy, overseas investments, diplomacy, national security, posture of deterrence and minimizing Jewish-Arab tension, which is fed by demographic fear.

ccording to the CBS, the country's Jewish population is getting younger and the Arab population getting older. The number of annual Jewish births increased by 45% between 1995 (80,400) and 2008 (117,000), as a result of aliya from the USSR, the shift by the Soviet olim from a typical Russian rate of one birth per woman to a typical Israeli rate of two-three births, the rising secular Jewish rate and the sustained high Orthodox and haredi rate.

The opposite trend among the Arab population is due to a number of factors:

large scale emigration, entrenched family planning, reduction of teen pregnancy, rapid urbanization, expanded education especially among women, record divorce rate and higher median marriage age.

The road map referred to above would would have a number of facets to it, as enumerated by the article's author, Yoram Ettinger--who has written about this topic extensively:

THE JEWISH DEMOGRAPHIC tailwind behooves the new government to introduce a demographic road map, which would increase the Jewish majority, while respecting the rights of the Arab minority:

1. Placing aliya at the top of the order of national priorities, as expected from the Jewish state and as required by economic and security challenges. The global economic meltdown, and the rise in anti-Semitism should be leveraged to increase aliya from the former USSR, US, Europe, Latin America and South Africa.

2. The conversion of some 250,000 olim from the former USSR - in accordance with Jewish laws - should be expedited.

3. Jewish immigration to - instead of emigration from - Jerusalem would be facilitated by the availability of jobs and lower-cost housing, created through entrepreneurs attracted by a drastic enhancement of the city's infrastructure (airport, fast railroad, Loop, additional freeway, industrial and residential zones).

4. Enticing the return of expatriates and reducing the number of quality emigrants by improving education and research and development infrastructures.

5. Expanding high school and academic programs for prospective olim.

6. Significant development of infrastructure in the Galilee and in the Negev, triggering emigration from the Greater Tel Aviv area, which would yield economic, environmental and demographic benefits.

7. Synchronizing industrial and educational 9-5 schedule, which would facilitate raising children and obtaining employment.

8. The establishment of a global Jewish foundation, which would support Jewish fertility worldwide, in view of high assimilation, low fertility rates among non-Israeli Jews and Holocaust-driven demographic challenges.

Keep in mind that the information on Arab demographics is important for the US--and Europe--as well, to the extent that the aid that is given to the Palestinian Arabs relies to an extent to the number of Palestinian Arabs that are supposedly receiving that aid.

It was reported back in 2006:

Congress today will be presented with a new study that documents the Palestinians have inflated their population numbers by over 50 percent and that almost $3 billion in United States taxpayer funds may have been provided as aid to the Palestinians in part based on fraudulent data.

Now that the US is giving $900 million to Gaza, it might be a good idea for the US to verify and be extra sure for what it will be used and to whom it will be given.
Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinians.

Someone In The Middle East Is Suffering A Population Implosion--And It's Not Israel

Yoram Ettinger writes:

Just as the world at large is experiencing an unprecedented collapse of demography, the UN Population Division reports a sharp decline of fertility rates (number of births per woman) in Muslim and Arab countries, excluding Afghanistan and Yemen.

...THE collapse of fertility rates in Muslim countries is a derivative of modernization and Westernization, rapid urbanization and internal security concerns by dictators fearing the consequences of the widening gap between population growth and economic growth. As a result, the UN Population Division has reduced its 2050 population projections by 25 percent, from 12 billion to 9 billion, possibly shrinking to 7.4 billion.

For instance, the fertility rate in Iran - the flagship of radical Islam - has declined from nine births per woman, 30 years ago, to 1.8 births in 2007. The Muslim religious establishment has also played a key role in decreasing fertility rates in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, from eight and seven births per woman 30 years ago, to less than four and less than 2.5 respectively in 2007.

Jordan, which is demographically close to Judea and Samaria, and Syria have demonstrated a diminished fertility rate: from eight, 30 years ago, to less than 3.5 in 2007. A substantial dive of fertility rates in Muslim countries - trending toward two births per woman - is documented by the Population Resource Center in Washington, DC.

Meanwhile, closer to home in the West Bank:

The decline in fertility and population growth rates has resulted from escalating emigration (which has characterized the region since 1950), accelerated urbanization (70% rural in 1967 and 60% urban in 2008), the expansion of education infrastructure, especially among women, the entrenchment of career mentality; the increase of median-marriage-age, an all-time high divorce rate, the contraction of teenage pregnancy and the UNRWA/PA-led family planning campaign.

The sharp lowering of fertility rate among "Green Line" (pre-1967 Israel) Arabs, from nine births per woman in 1969 to 3.5 in 2007, has been the outcome of their successful integration into Israel's education, employment, commerce, health, banking, cultural, political and sports infrastructures. The annual number of Arab births stabilized at approximately 39,000 between 1995-2007. The Arab fertility rate converges swiftly toward the Jewish fertility rate (2.8 births per woman).

Read the whole thing.

No mention is made to Gaza in the entire article, but with Palestinian vs Palestinian violence and emigration it's not difficult to guess which way the demographics are trending.

The upshot of the importance of all of this?

Israel's policy-makers and public opinion-molders should base their assessments on thoroughly-documented demographic optimism and not on baseless demographic fatalism, in order to avoid erroneous assumptions, which yield erroneous and self-destructive policy decisions.

You mean like the decisions that have been made so far?

Technorati Tag: Israel and Demographics.

The Decline in Palestinian Arab Fertility--And Why It Should Matter To The US

Yoram Ettinger, a member of the American-Israeli Demographic Research Group, reports in ynetnews.com:

...the UN Population Division claims that the drop in Muslim and Arab fertility rates is the highest in the world. Over the course of a mere 25 years Iranians have gone from an average of 10 children per woman to 1.8.

In Egypt and Jordan numbers have plummeted to fewer than 2.5 and 3 children per woman, respectively.

Meanwhile, what about the Jewish fertility level in Israel?

since the year 2000 Jewish fertility is on the rise (2.8) while the fall in Arab rates (3.5) came no less than 20 years earlier than predicted.

The annual number of Jewish births has risen 40% since 1995 (80,400 then compared to 112,455 in 2007) while the number of Arab births has steadied at 39,000.

This all runs contrary to the predictions of the Central Bureau of Statistics, which apparently has a long history of miscalculation:

We will remember that in 1948 the Bureau's founder and spiritual leader, Professor Roberto Bacchi, tried to persuade David Ben-Gurion to postpone the establishment of the State of Israel. According to Bacchi's projections at the time, the 600,000 Jewish citizens living within the borders allocated by the United Nations partition plan would become a minority by 1967.

In 1967 and 1973 the Bureau predicted that Jews would become a minority in the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean by 1987 and 1990, respectively.

In addition to fewer Arabs and Moslems being born, Palestinian Arabs in particular also have to deal with the fact that fewer of those that are being born are sticking around. According to The Ettinger Report (see cached copy), Palestinian Arab emigration is on the rise, quoting--among other things--Yedioth Achronot from April 8:

38% of Palestinians wish to emigrate, according to a February 2007 survey conducted by A-Najah University in Nablus and a survey conducted by Nabil Kukali’s research center in Beit Sakhur. A September 2006 study, by Bir Zeit University, indicated that 44% of the 20-30 age group, and 32% of the total Palestinian population, want to emigrate.

The low Palestinian birthrate and increasing rate of emigration is of more than mild interest to the US.

Back in March 2006, data on the declining Palestinian birthrate, supported in part by the Palestinian Arabs themselves, were presented to the Middle East Subcommittee of the House International Relations Committee, chaired by Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, the Republican Congresswoman of Florida--who in January proposed legislation, which would cut American funding to both the PA and the UN, designate the PA a "terrorist sanctuary," and close down some of the PA offices in the US, in order to reduce Palestinian-American diplomatic ties.

But this time, the issue was not about terrorism--the issue of Palestinian demographics was relevant to the committee for a different reason. The importance of Zimmerman's demographic research for the US, as noted by World Net Daily, is that

almost $3 billion in United States taxpayer funds may have been provided as aid to the Palestinians in part based on fraudulent data.

"American tax dollars and other international humanitarian aid have been based on inflated population numbers which have been accepted without question by governments and aid agencies. Our researchers pointed out that money has been spent to help Palestinians who were double-counted, never born or not present in the West Bank and Gaza," Bennet Zimmerman, head of the new study, titled "Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza," told WND.

This of course is in addition to the corruption and the siphoning off of the money to terrorists.

Of course, one might assume that Europe, as well as the US, would be interested in the possibility that they are being swindled by the Palestinian Arabs as well.

Based on the continued rush of the US and Europe to throw money at the PA, such an assumption is apparently unfounded.

Technorati Tag: Palestinians.

The Palestinian Census--Smoke And Mirrors

IMRA has a translation of the Hebrew article by Yoram Ettinger:

...While the 2007 census ignores the bolstered emigration phenomenon, Israel's Border Police and the European observers have documented net-emigration of 12,000 in 2004, 16,000 in 2005 and 25,000 in 2006, with expectation of a significant rise in the scope of 2007 net-emigration. The extent of 1997-2003 average annual net-emigration was over 10,000, which has characterized the entire period since 1950!

According to the PCBS [Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics] website, the 2007 census was based on the 1997 census, which was inflated by 30%, growing exponentially by the year. Thus, in contrast with internationally accepted demographic standards, the 1997 census included 325,000 residents, who stayed abroad for over a year, as well as students, who studied overseas, irrespective of their study period. Israel subtracts from its census Israelis who are away for over a year, and restores them following 90 days of stay in Israel. The 1997 census included 210,000 Israeli Arabs, bearing Israeli I.D. cards, who were doubly-counted: as Israeli Arabs by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics and as West Bank Arabs by the PCBS.

In summation, the 2007 census for Judea & Samaria was inflated by 53%, and the Jewish-Arab proportion west of the Jordan River - without Gaza - documents a robust Jewish majority of 67%, compared with a 33% Jewish minority in 1947, including Gaza. The most effective symptom of the transformation - from Arab to Jewish demographic momentum - has been the absolute annual number of Jewish and Arab births within Israel's "Green Line." While the number of annual Arab births stagnated at 39,000 between 1995 to 2007, the number of annual Jewish births catapulted by 40% from 80,400 in 1995 to 112,000 in 2007.

There is a demographic problem, but it is not lethal, there is no demographic machete at Israel's throat, and the demographic tailwind is Jewish, not Arab. In fact, documented births, deaths and migration clarify that Jewish demography has become a strategic asset and not a liability. Hence, awareness of demographic reality could enhance the security, political, strategic, diplomatic and economic options of Israeli doves and hawks alike.

Read the whole thing.

All well and good--but who is going to bring all this to the attention of Prime Minister Olmert, who continues to refer to the Palestinian version of the demographics to defend the 'painful concessions' he insists must be made in the peace process.

Technorati Tag: Israel.

OLMERT WORKING HARD TO CREATE A DEMOGRAPHIC PROBLEM. Aside from his offer to swap land, Olmert is also playing travel agent for Palestinian Arabs:

The plan also recognizes the right of immigration of millions of Arabs living in foreign countries on condition that they live only in PA areas and not in Israel.

Part of the rationale for the need to negotiate with the PA is the 'demographic timebomb' of the explosive growth of the Palestinian population--which is a myth.

But it won't be for long, if Olmert can help it.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Olmert and Democgraphics.

SEX AND THE SINGLE PALESTINIAN. Hey, that's ABC's headline for it--I'm just borrowing it. But the article, if accurate, describes a situation that severely undercuts the image of Palestinian Arabs as masters of their demographic destiny. Also, if true, it bodes for real conflict with the declared goal of Hamas to create an Islamic state.

Technorati Tag: Palestinians.

ALL BETS ARE OFF: Of the various scenarios being offered in the wake of the takeover of Gaza by Hamas, one is to dump Oslo altogether:

The political crisis has propelled a debate among Palestinian intellectuals over whether Palestinians might be better served by dumping the trappings of the 1993 Oslo peace agreement, which created the enfeebled Palestinian Authority, and leaving themselves under Israeli occupation without their own government.

This would, in effect, swap the two-state solution for a one-state vision in which Arabs might someday achieve a demographic majority in the region that includes Israel, the West Bank and Gaza. The idea has gained momentum since the power-sharing agreement reached in February between Hamas and Fatah failed to get the international community to end its ban on aid to the Hamas-led government.

"One cannot exclude such a possibility: that this is the end of the two-state solution," said Yitzhak Reiter, a fellow at Hebrew University's Harry S. Truman Institute for the Advancement of Peace in Jerusalem.

Of course that power-sharing agreement didn't get the complete backing of Hamas and Fatah either--but why quibble? Besides, recent demographic research indicates that the Palestinian demographics are not everything they've been cracked up to be.

[Hat tip: Hot Air]

Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinian Civil War and Hamas and Fatah.

CONFERENCE CALL: THE FUTURE OF JERUSALEM. I participated in a conference call Thursday with Bennett Zimmerman and members of his American-Israel Demographic Research Group, arranged by One Jerusalem. The American-Israel Demographic Research Group has worked to debunk myths about the demographic trends in Israel, particularly the myth that Jerusalem is slowly turning into an Arab dominated city.

Besides setting the record straight, Zimmerman also offers on some ideas on the policies that Israel needs to put into place in order to allow the natural demographics of Israel to assert themselves.

Among others participating in the call were Mere Rhetoric and Jewish Current Issues

Listen to the call.
Read Zimmerman's research.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Bennett Zimmerman and American-Israel Demographic Research Group and Jerusalem.

AT THIS RATE...Mr. Bagel has a post about a disturbing trend in Jerusalem:

The capital's Arab population has increased at more than twice the rate of its Jewish inhabitants over the last decade, according to a survey released by the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies on Monday.

...The Arab growth rate over the last decade was 3-4%, the survey found, more than double that for Jews.

On the other hand, there is news like this:

The Arab fertility rate in Jerusalem has dropped slightly and the Jewish fertility rate has risen in the past few years, according to a joint American-Israeli report submitted to Mayor Uri Lupolianski. The report asserts that in 2005 both the Arab and Jewish birthrates were 3.9 children per woman, the first time the two birthrates have been equal.

The bad news is that both Mr. Bagel's source and mine are the same: The Jerusalem Post. There have been strong indications that past demographic studies have been badly flawed because they relied on data provided by the Palestinians--so why are 2 articles from the same newspaper just 5 months apart so different. Even taking into account that Mr. Bagel's source is talking about growth rate, while mine is referring to birth rate, take into account the following formula from Wikipedia

Growth Rate = [(birth + immigration)-(deaths+emigration)]/population

along with the fact of Jewish immigration and Palestinian emigration. According to Israel Today, 10,000 Palestinians emigrated last year alone and 50,000 are seeking foreign citizenship--leading Sheikh Hamad al-Bitawi to issue a fatwa forbidding Palestinian Arabs from emigrating.

Considering how policies are being justified in part because of demographic data, Israel had better clarify just what the demographic situation is.

Technorati Tag: Israel.

THE DESTRUCTION OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM--FROM WITHIN: This threat is not military--it's demographic:

This is a vicious, lethal battle taking place largely out of the media spotlight. But, long term, it is destroying the source of Islamic terrorism.

[Hat tip: Instapundit]

Technorati Tag: Terrorism and Islamists.

THE CHANGING PALESTINIAN DEMOGRAPHICS: According to The Ettinger Report, Palestinian Arab emigration is on the rise, quoting--among other things--Yedioth Achronot from April 8:

38% of Palestinians wish to emigrate, according to a February 2007 survey conducted by A-Najah University in Nablus and a survey conducted by Nabil Kukali’s research center in Beit Sakhur. A September 2006 study, by Bir Zeit University, indicated that 44% of the 20-30 age group, and 32% of the total Palestinian population, want to emigrate.

The fertility rate of both Jews and Arabs are changing--and moving in opposite directions.

Technorati Tag: Israel.

"THE RIGHT OF RETURN IS AN ILLUSION," WRITES A SAUDI: Saudi columnist Yousef Nasser Al-Sweidan writes in the Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyassa:

"It is patently obvious that uprooting the descendents of the refugees from their current homes in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and other countries, and returning them to Israel, to the West Bank, and to Gaza is a utopian ideal and [a recipe for] anarchy. More than that - it is an idea that cannot be implemented, not only because it will upset the demographic [balance] in a dangerous and destructive manner, and will have [far-reaching] political, economic and social ramifications in such a small and constrained geographical area, but [mainly] because the return [of the refugees] stands in blatant contradiction to Israel's right as a sovereign [state], while the Palestinian Authority lacks the infrastructure to absorb such a large number of immigrants as long as the peace process... is not at its peak..."

Read the whole thing.
[Hat tip: The Corner]

Technorati Tag: Right of Return and Palestinians and Israel.