Krauthamer's Missile Deterence

In Friday's Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer, offers Israel advice on how to deal with the Kassam rockets that the Security Fence cannot prevent:

Israel should announce that henceforth any rocket launched from Palestinian territory will immediately trigger a mechanically automatic response in which five Israeli rockets will be fired back. There will be no human intervention in the loop. Every Palestinian rocket landing in Israel will instantly trigger sensors and preset counter-launchers. Any Palestinian terrorist firing up a rocket will know that he is triggering six: one Palestinian and five Israeli.

Israel would decide how these five would be programmed to respond. Perhaps three aimed at the launch site and vicinity and two at a list of predetermined military and strategic assets of the Palestinian militias.

This policy would echo, though in far more benign form, America's Cold War deterrence policy of "massive retaliation." That was all somewhat theoretical, but the Soviets apparently thought otherwise when they backed down during the Cuban missile crisis. In Gaza, the issue is not theoretical. Once Israel leaves, there is no way to dismantle the rockets. Deterrence is all there is. After but a few Israeli demonstrations of "non-massive retaliation," the Palestinians themselves will shut down their terrorist rocketeers.

One potential problem is that "military and strategic assets of the Palestinian militias" are different from those of Russia in the Cold War in that unlike Russia, Hamas and other terrorist groups keep their military assets right in the middle of the civiliam population. Is Israel really going to risk the wrath of the world on this? If a purely defensive security fence gets the UN in an uproar, imagine the mileage they will get from Krauthamer's anti-missle deterence.

Additionally, why would anyone imagine that those firing the missiles into Israel would be impressed with the potential counter-attack, even if it were to hit civilians?

According to Amira Hass in Haaretz:

The main headline in the Palestinian daily newspaper Al-Ayyam on Wednesday, August 3, reported that a boy of 6 had been killed in the northern Gaza Strip and another 10 children had been wounded....Ever since the Palestinians began to manufacture and launch locally produced missiles, about four years ago, most of the casualties they have inflicted - dead and wounded - have been Palestinian, and not Israeli.

Hass goes on to claim that now that the goal in Gaza has been achieved, the firing of the Kassam rockets will be discouraged:

Therefore, it appears that the PA is now trying to strip the armed Palestinian groups, and first and foremost the Islamic opposition organizations, of the halo of heroism created around the firing of mortars and Qassams.

But it remains to be seen whether the PA has the authority and respect needed to end the missle attacks among their own, let alone Hamas which is riding high on its perceived role in forcing an Israeli withdrawl.

Even if the PA and the splinter groups do distance themselves from the collateral damage caused by their missile attacks, is there any reason to think that they will not glorify the collateral damage of Israeli missile counter-attacks?

Why does Krauthamer think that the collateral damage caused by Israel will not be viewed by the terrorists as collateral victory?

While it is tempting and deceptively straightforward to analyze how the Palestinian Arabs should think about and react to the Disengagement (see earlier post), alot of what has been written seems to be based on wishful thinking.