From August 2005: Hamas Predictions About Kassam Rockets Against Israel After Disengagement

Back in August 2005, Aaron Klein wrote:Hamas Launching Rocket War After Gaza Evacuation, with the subtitle: "Terrorist group foresees massive attacks as next stage of 'conflict'":

A research center affiliated with Hamas has published a study concluding the Palestinian group is likely to launch rockets against towns in Judea and Samaria after Israel withdraws its Jewish communities from Gaza.

The study follows an announcement last month on Hamas’ official website that the group will continue its war to destroy Israel by launching Qassam rockets at Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and communities in Judea and Samaria.

According to the Al-Mustaqbal Research Center in Gaza, among the likely scenarios after Israel evacuates Gaza Aug. 17 is for Hamas to “[massively] use upgraded Qassam rockets, the strategic weapons of the future Palestinian-Israeli conflict” against Jewish communities near Gaza and in Judea and Samaria.

The scenarios described, in retrospect, were accurate:

Woman Killed in Sderot Rocket Attack

From Arutz Sheva:

Woman Killed in Sderot Rocket Attack

A woman was killed and a man lost his legs when two Kassam rockets landed in downtown Sderot. The Islamic Jihad and Iz A-Din El-Kassam terrorists claimed credit.

The rockets fell not far from the house of former Sderot Mayor Amir Peretz, Israel's Defense Minister.

Fatima Slutzker, 57, who was killed in the attack, and Maor (ben Dorit) Peretz, 24-year-old guard assigned to protect Peretz's house, were hit by the rockets' wildly-scattered deadly shrapnel. Both were taken to Barzilai Hospital in Ashkelon, where the woman died, leaving behind her husband and two sons. Peretz had both of his legs amputated. Six other people were treated for light injuries. Close to ten Kassams were fired at Sderot today.

Four other rockets were fired at the western Negev this morning (Wednesday), two volleys were fired into downtown Sderot last night, and yet another rocket landed near a children's nursery in a nearby kibbutz yesterday morning.

"People went into panic and began yelling when they heard the boom this morning," one eyewitness said.

Another resident told Arutz-7 that it is becoming impossible for many people to continue living in the city in the face of such fears and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Olmert's dealing with Hamas does not seem to be any more coherent than the way he conducted the war with Hezbollah

MK Tzvi Hendel (National Union), commenting on the government's refusal to send in massive forces to enter Gaza, said bitterly, "Only a rocket on Tel Aviv will cause [Prime Minister] Olmert to take over Gaza."

Today's victim is the seventh victim of a Kassam attack.

Today's victim was Israel's seventh direct victim of a Kassam rocket, among the nearly 1,700 that have been fired since the withdrawal from Gaza. Mordechai Yosifov, 49, and Afik Zahavi, a 3.5 year old on his way to nursery, were killed in June 2004. Three months later, two young cousins - Dorit Aniso, 2, and Yuval Abebeh, 4 - were killed just before the onset of the Sukkot holiday. Four months later, Ella Abukasis, 17, was killed by a Kassam rocket as she was walking home; she jumped to protect her brother when the Red Dawn rocket warning alert sounded. In July 2005, Dana Gelkowitz, 22, was killed in a Kassam attack at Netiv HaAsarah - the only non-Sderot Kassam casualty among Israelis.

In addition, three foreign workers were killed in a Kassam attack in Gush Katif in 2005, and two Bedouin were killed when they moved a previously-unexploded Kassam in a field.

Meanwhile, in contrast to Israel's reaction when civilians are accidentally killed, Hamas is gloating:

Hamas Boasts: Kassam Has Defeated Israel

An official Hamas communique states, "The enemy, in his despair, has tried everything against our Kassams, but he knows that all his plans will fail."

Abu Obeideh, the spokesman of the Iz A-Din El-Kassam military wing of the Hamas terrorist organization, publicized this statement: "Everyone knows that the main purpose of all the Israeli military missions is to stop the Kassam rockets. The enemy, in his despair, has tried all means of pressure, instilling fear, killing and collective punishment, but he recognizes the fact that all his plans will fail with the launching of the first volley from between the columns of armor, and despite his planes and intelligence gathering."

The Hamas spokesman said, "Our fighters have dealt successfully with the military missions, and this has brought Israel to announce another plan indicating its despair, according to which it will no longer announce where the rockets fell, in the illusion that this will mislead the resistance." He said this will not disturb them from determining their targets "with precision and with new means." The proof of this, he said, is the high number of "accurate hits among the colonialists [Israeli citizens] and homes, and their running to the shelters, the sounding of rocket warning systems and street demonstrations by colonialists who have no security in their homes."

Israel must think carefully before considering conquering the Gaza Strip, the spokesman warns, because it will not fulfill its goal and will simply cause additional defeats for its army.

Olmert has claimed that Nasrallah does not have the appetite for another war with Israel--Actually it is Olmert who does not have the stomach to do what is necessary: neither against Hezbollah or Hamas.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Sderot and Olmert and Kassams and Hamas.

Appeasement Means Always Having To Say You're Sorry

He will be surprised when he sits with me at how far we are prepared to go. I can offer him a lot.
Prime Minister Olmert

"I think that someone has lost it in this country – it's becoming obvious that the Israeli government doesn't know how to defend the state of Israel on the political and explanatory front."
Zvi Mazel, Israel's former ambassador to Egypt and Sweden

In Losing The Media War, Israel Matzav discusses how Olmert is in full appeasement mode now, following the conclusion made by the IDF that the shelling of a home in Beit Hanoun was caused by a technical failure in their artillery.

IM notes the response from the Israeli leadership:

o Chief of Staff Dan Halutz has ordered all artillery fire into the Gaza Strip to be stopped "until further technical, professional and operational inquiries were completed."

o Defense Minister Amir Peretz has ordered that "all artillery fire into the Gaza Strip must first be approved by OC Southern Command Maj.-Gen. Yoav Galant."

o And then there is Olmert:

who is falling over himself offering more and more concessions in response to 'Palestinian' calls for mass murder of Jews. Tonight, Olmert apologized again for yesterday's shelling, and sent a message to 'moderate Palestinian President' Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen that he is willing to 'go far' in a projected meeting with Abu Mazen.

"He will be surprised when he sits with me at how far we are prepared to go,” Olmert said Thursday evening. “I can offer him a lot."

No doubt.

This from:

the can-do guy who said that if:

"the terrorist organizations impose a violent confrontation, both Israelis and the Palestinians will have to bear the consequences."

the visionary who declared in the beginning of August that:

Israel's success in Lebanon will create "new momentum" for his plan to unilaterally withdraw from most of Judea and Samaria.

the keen tactician who said this week:

I am still proud to say that I was among the initiators of the Disengagement

the shrewd negotiator who promised:

There is an honest, real will on my part to give a lot and receive little in return.

Olmert made that last statement back in June when he gave 375 rifles to Abbas.
This time, Olmert wants to release terrorists.

Israel Matzav links to a YNet News article Want to win media game? Don't apologize. Some advice is offered by Dr. Ra'anan Gissin, former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's media adviser and a strategist who now works as a foreign media expert. He says that Israel needs to win not only on the military front, but the media front as well:

You must broadcast the images of the terror groups hiding their rockets and launching those rockets from those residential areas. The world doesn't see enough of those images. Take one cell, don't destroy it, follow it and then show the world the images of the rockets being fired from within neighborhoods. Because if you kill the cell, and the world never sees it – the world won't believe it ever existed."

...Gissin notes that Hizbullah invests 15 percent of its Iranian given 100 million dollars in operating the al-Manar television network. Israel's spokespeople need to be the right people for the job, says Gissin, not just "eloquent English speakers."

Zvi Mazel, Israel's former ambassador to Egypt and Sweden gets it.

"The world must understand that the lives of Israeli citizens have become hell – they can't work, they can't live, not to mention the economic damage. If Livni and her friends were saying that, then our situation would be completely different."

"The world must be told in the clearest manner that the responsibility lies solely with the terror organizations, which bring it on themselves. Foreign Minister Livni should have convened the foreign press by that afternoon and explained to the journalists that terror groups operate from within the civilian population with the intent to draw the IDF there."

Mazel says that the world must understand that despite Israel's withdrawal from Gaza the Palestinians continue to relentlessly launch Qassam rockets at Israeli towns with the intent to kill.

There is a confidence in the IDF that it can rebound and learn from errors in the war with Hezbollah.

The question remains whether Israel is up to the challenge of dealing with the media.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Media and Terrorism and Gaza and Olmert.

Operation Autumn Clouds Was Really Just Fog

This morning Arutz Sheva carried the story:

Givati Infantry Brigade forces, accompanied by tanks, armored vehicles and aerial support, have engaged terrorists in heavy battle in northern Gaza; ten terrorists and one soldier have been killed.

IDF censors have released the name of the soldier killed during the clash with terrorists in Beit Hanoun, the PA-controlled Gaza town from which rockets are fired on Sderot. He is Staff Sergeant Kiril Golenshein, 21, from the agricultural community of Shekef.

Golenshein was shot and fatally wounded by Palestinian Authority terrorists at 2:30AM Wednesday. He was evacuated from the scene, but died a short time later. IDF forces shot and hit at least two of the cell that attacked Golenshein's unit.

The stepped-up military offensive is part of ongoing efforts to bring an end to daily Kassam rocket attacks from the Beit Hanoun area of northern Gaza towards the western Negev and Sderot areas. Army Radio (Galei Tzahal) reports it is Israel's largest military operation in Gaza since the abduction of Corp. Gilad Shalit more than four months ago.

At least 30 Arabs have been wounded and six killed; Israeli sources report ten dead. Among the dead are terrorists of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and others. The Hamas Authority government convened for an emergency situation, calling upon Israel to stop its "slaughter."

At first glance, you would think that Israel was starting a real offensive--the kind that some had hinted at which was inevitable, given the constant barrage of missiles from Gaza and the volatility of the situation.

True, there were already the assurances that Israel as limiting its intents, that she would not recapture Gaza--anything to put the terrorists' minds at ease.

Already in the Arutz Sheva article, there were signs of hesitation:

The Security Cabinet met this morning to determine the extent of the
operation. Though the army recommended a wide-ranging offensive, only
local offensives were approved.

The BBC is reporting:

Reports say an inner cabinet of top ministers which met to review the situation in Gaza has decided not to expand the military offensive.

Chas V'Shalom that Israel should create any uncertainty or tension--lest it undermine that sterling moderate Abbas.

Later in the day, Arutz Sheva was reporting

In a sad statement, officials are already signaling defeat, informing Sderot and western Negev residents that the daily Kassam rocket attacks are now ‘part of life,’ indicating the IDF does not have the ability to bring a total cessation to the attacks.

The article continues with an air of despair:

The army’s limited offensive contradicts the statements and promises made by the government in 2005, which then warned the PA (Palestinian Authority) that rocket attacks into southern Israel would be viewed as a border violation and they would be met with a stern IDF response. In the meantime, over a year since the implementation of then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s Disengagement Plan, the frequency of attacks continues to increase.

In addition, IDF Corporal Gilad Shalit remains hostage to Hamas terrorists in Gaza sine June 25th. The Olmert administration has gone back on all its promises, vowing it would not end the war in Lebanon until all the captive soldiers are released. Olmert vowed not to sign a ceasefire, and not to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, but today, Shalit remains captive along with Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, whom are being held by Hizbullah. Hamas politburo leader Khaled Meshal, based in Damascus, continues to veto all prisoner exchange deals with Israel.

Arab media reports of late indicate behind-the-scenes talks are taking place, leading to a deal that will result in Shalit’s release in exchange for some 1,000 terrorists.

And while the media continues to play down the effect of the daily barrage of Kassam rockets, as if it were a mere nuisance, Ynet reports:

Data from Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon indicate that during 2005, 87 people were rushed to hospital compared to 202 in 2006 so far. Emergency room is still not protected.

...A large part of those who were evacuated to the hospital suffered from shock, but there were those who were injured severely and even some killed.

Now, based on what the IDF admits, the numbers are only going to get worse.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Kassams and Gaza.

Kneeling, But Not In Prayer

When I first saw this picture on The Sunken Synagoue, for a moment I thought it was a picture of Moslems praying.

The actual AP caption reads:

Schoolchildren from the western Negev town of Sderot during a kassam-rocket drill (AP)

It is part of a timeline put together by the Jerusalem Post of the Disengagement.

The Sunken Synagogue's post deals with the attempt by the residents of Sderot to make the MK's in the Knesset aware of what life in Sderot has been reduced to by the constant barrage of Kassam rockets.

He is not optimistic.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Sderot and Kassams.

The Kassams Are Falling, The Kassams Are Falling

Mere Rhetoric reminds us that some things are just not changing--and the IDF is caught between the Palestinian Arabs who will not stop trying to kill civilians, and the Israelis who think "it's a disgrace that the IDF does nothing."

Israel was helpless against the barrage of Hezbollahs rockets.

And the Palestinians have clearly learned their lesson.

Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinians.

More Palestinian Civilians Killed: You`d Think There Was A War Or Something

Haaretz reports: IDF: Not enough time to stop second missile

Nine Palestinians were killed and dozens wounded on Tuesday in an Israel Air Force strike on a Katyusha-launching cell in Gaza City. Seven of those killed were civilians, including two children and three medical personnel.

The incident began shortly after noon, when IAF planes fired a brace of missiles at a van containing four or five Islamic Jihad operatives. According to the Israel Defense Forces, the van also contained GRAD Katyusha rockets; this was confirmed by television footage from the scene of the strike, in which the rockets were visible. The Jihad operatives were apparently en route to launch the rockets at Israel.

Coming so soon after the Gaza Beach incident--even granting the proof that Hamas mines were to blame--another wave of criticism both internally and abroad is on its way. This time, there may be a valid issue of error and preventable casualties. According to Haaretz there were 2 braces of missiles fired. The Palestinian Arabs claim there was a 4 minute lull that allowed people to collect around the wreckage, before the second brace of missiles fell. The IDF says only a minute elapsed and afte the the second brace was fired there was only a 7-second warning of civilians at the site before the missiles hit--not enough time to divert the missiles without possibly increasing casualties.

Haaretz is making an issue of the fact that the IDF is not releasing the video they have of the attack to back up their claim and notes that the presence of medical pesonnel indicates there was more than just a one minute lull.

By the same token, the article also notes what happened after the first missiles hit:

The missiles landed near the van, causing only minor damage, and the Jihad operatives quickly abandoned it, apparently unharmed. Some of them then went to a nearby house, while others, aided by the numerous bystanders who had gathered at the site, surrounded the van and apparently tried to extract the Katyushas.

Palestinian civilians who decide to get involved in an attack are no longer innocent bystanders--while it is a tragedy that true bystanders were killed, as long as the attempt was made to save the the Katyushas for another strike, the threat still remained.

Statements by Minister of Defense Peretz may indicate a change in attitude towards dealing with the threat of the missiles:

Shortly before the missile strike, Defense Minister Amir Peretz told reporters that Israel's restraint had ended. "We've displayed the necessary restraint in light of the international storm, but that's over," he said, while observing a military exercise in the north. "No consideration will replace our obligation to defend Israel's citizens ... There are no guarantees for anyone, regardless of his title, his affiliation, or the name and status of his organization."

Following the attack, Peretz and IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz expressed regret over the civilian deaths but justified the decision to strike at the Jihad cell. Halutz explained that Israel "cannot accept" Katyusha launches at its territory. Added Peretz: "Unfortunately, these organizations launch attacks from populated areas in order to hurt our citizens."

It's a good start--the question is whether the apparent determination can be sustained in the face of the inevitable public outcry by the left in Israel and the media abroad.

In the meantime, Israel lives in a situation where Haaretz can report:

The missile strikes followed a relatively quiet night, in which only six Qassam rockets were fired at Israel [emphasis added]

Technorati Tag: Israel and Palestinians and Kassam and Katyusha and Amir Peretz.

Krauthamer's Missile Deterence

In Friday's Washington Post, Charles Krauthammer, offers Israel advice on how to deal with the Kassam rockets that the Security Fence cannot prevent:

Israel should announce that henceforth any rocket launched from Palestinian territory will immediately trigger a mechanically automatic response in which five Israeli rockets will be fired back. There will be no human intervention in the loop. Every Palestinian rocket landing in Israel will instantly trigger sensors and preset counter-launchers. Any Palestinian terrorist firing up a rocket will know that he is triggering six: one Palestinian and five Israeli.

Israel would decide how these five would be programmed to respond. Perhaps three aimed at the launch site and vicinity and two at a list of predetermined military and strategic assets of the Palestinian militias.

This policy would echo, though in far more benign form, America's Cold War deterrence policy of "massive retaliation." That was all somewhat theoretical, but the Soviets apparently thought otherwise when they backed down during the Cuban missile crisis. In Gaza, the issue is not theoretical. Once Israel leaves, there is no way to dismantle the rockets. Deterrence is all there is. After but a few Israeli demonstrations of "non-massive retaliation," the Palestinians themselves will shut down their terrorist rocketeers.

One potential problem is that "military and strategic assets of the Palestinian militias" are different from those of Russia in the Cold War in that unlike Russia, Hamas and other terrorist groups keep their military assets right in the middle of the civiliam population. Is Israel really going to risk the wrath of the world on this? If a purely defensive security fence gets the UN in an uproar, imagine the mileage they will get from Krauthamer's anti-missle deterence.

Additionally, why would anyone imagine that those firing the missiles into Israel would be impressed with the potential counter-attack, even if it were to hit civilians?

According to Amira Hass in Haaretz:

The main headline in the Palestinian daily newspaper Al-Ayyam on Wednesday, August 3, reported that a boy of 6 had been killed in the northern Gaza Strip and another 10 children had been wounded....Ever since the Palestinians began to manufacture and launch locally produced missiles, about four years ago, most of the casualties they have inflicted - dead and wounded - have been Palestinian, and not Israeli.

Hass goes on to claim that now that the goal in Gaza has been achieved, the firing of the Kassam rockets will be discouraged:

Therefore, it appears that the PA is now trying to strip the armed Palestinian groups, and first and foremost the Islamic opposition organizations, of the halo of heroism created around the firing of mortars and Qassams.

But it remains to be seen whether the PA has the authority and respect needed to end the missle attacks among their own, let alone Hamas which is riding high on its perceived role in forcing an Israeli withdrawl.

Even if the PA and the splinter groups do distance themselves from the collateral damage caused by their missile attacks, is there any reason to think that they will not glorify the collateral damage of Israeli missile counter-attacks?

Why does Krauthamer think that the collateral damage caused by Israel will not be viewed by the terrorists as collateral victory?

While it is tempting and deceptively straightforward to analyze how the Palestinian Arabs should think about and react to the Disengagement (see earlier post), alot of what has been written seems to be based on wishful thinking.