Iran: Snatching Martyrdom From The Jaws Of Defeat

Reuters has a "Factbox" on the subject.

Iran will hit Tel Aviv, U.S. shipping in the Gulf and American interests if it is attacked over its disputed nuclear activities, an aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

...Following are some tactics Iran could employ, including unconventional or "asymmetric" methods, that have either already been used by Iranian forces or blamed on Iran in the past:

• HIT-AND-RUN RAIDS IN THE GULF
• STRIKING U.S. INTERESTS
• VIOLENCE IN IRAQ
• DESTABILISING AFGHANISTAN
• USING REGIONAL ALLIES
• HOSTAGE-TAKING

Read the article for details.

At Pajamas Media, Omar Fadhil of Iraq the Model also describes Iran's options:

According to the chief of the IRGC General Mohammed Ali Jaafari, Iran would seal off the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf if attacked. It will even attack any countries from which an American attack comes.

Iran has long wanted to believe that America can’t take action against it because of America’s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and the U.S. public’s distaste for opening yet another front. Iran is trying to use this presumed situation to deter an Israeli attack by threatening to force the U.S. to participate in a large-scale operation against it should such an attack occur.

Tehran is thus strategically threatening to expand the war beyond the presumed limits of a) the American public’s tolerance or b) the price the U.S. is ready to pay to eliminate a threat to Israel, the Gulf, and maybe European — but not American — soil.

Iran has also threatened to use its surrogates in the Middle East to escalate operations against Israeli and U.S. troops. This means that Iran wants to have concerned countries apply pressure on Israel not to attack by threatening open war in the Middle East.

If Iran’s deterrence plan fails — and it most likely will since the threat is existential to Israel — it will clearly still try to expand the conflict. Dragging the U.S. into a war that cannot be won would provide Tehran with a propaganda victory that could be used to relieve the pain of losing their nuclear program. Not a bad trade, especially that Israel is going to bomb it anyway.

Read the whole thing.

No wonder the US is denying being behind an Israeli attack to take out Iran's reactors. What US president would want to get drawn into prospects like these at the end of his term, never mind the beginning of one?

But with Iran sending false signals and dragging their feet on oversight, combined with the failure of sanctions--just what is left, other than listening to Iranian threats to destroy Israel?

Technorati Tag: Iran.