Friday, November 14, 2008

Now That He Is Elected, Obama Is In No Rush To Talk To Iran

Which of course is a good thing.

Amir Taheri gives some reasons for the turnaround:
To start with, he has realized that his offer of unconditional talks with Tehran could destroy the six-nation coalition that has managed to pass three United Nations Security Council resolutions imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Some allies, including France, have issued direct warnings that Obama's campaign promise may encourage Iran to speed up its nuclear program. Israel's Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, for her part, has indicated "deep reservations" about Obama's Iran gambit.

More important, perhaps, with the election over, Obama remembers that talking to the mullahs is nothing new. First launched by West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher in 1980, it has been tried by the European Union, successive US administrations and several Arab countries for a quarter of a century - producing nothing but grief. Genscher ended up describing the Khomeinist regime as a trap whose embrace is best avoided.
The change itself is reflected in the change in the language Obama is now using when discussing talking with Iran:

Obama no longer talks of "meeting them anywhere, anytime." Instead, he speaks of engaging Iran "at a time and place of my choosing." His initial idea of talking to Ahmadinejad is also gone. Now, he says he'd talk to "appropriate Iranian leadership" (whatever that means).

Clearly, he has toned down the concept of "unconditional talks." He talks of "careful preparations," while his advisers say that he won't seek talks with Tehran until after the Iranian presidential election next summer. The idea is to deny Ahmadinejad a breakthrough with America that would bolster his re-election bid.

Like I said, this is all to the good. Now, if we could only figure out just what Obama plans to do about Israel. Changing the Iran policy he articulated during the campaign is a good thing; if Obama just as easily changes his intent towards Israel that he articulated during the campaign--that would not be good at all.

In the meantime, all we can do is wait.

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